contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
      tags {
        viewerIsFollowing
        id
      }
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
      tags {
        viewerIsFollowing
        id
      }
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      tags {
        viewerIsFollowing
        id
      }
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


el-nino-the-inflation-surprise-for-the-end-of-the-year

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Economist

Marianne Palmu

ECB’s recent economic bulletin was a reminder of how weather fluctuations can affect everything, including inflation.

ECB&rsquo;s<a href="https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/ecbu/eb202306.en.pdf"> recent economic bulletin</a> was a reminder of how weather fluctuations can affect everything, including inflation.
I wrote in August about how climate change is a global supply side shock in the economy, the effects of which are diverse but asymmetric (full overview of the topic <a href="https://www.inderes.se/articles/climate-change-threatens-to-increase-supply-side-shocks-and-accelerate-inflation-globally">here</a>). Food was one of the key factors, e.g., as an inflationary factor, and its price continued to rise sharply in the euro area based on September figures (+8.8% year-on-year).
Now,&nbsp; a surprising connection to extreme weather phenomena was even included in the ECB&rsquo;s Economic Bulletin. One section of the report discussed El Ni&ntilde;o, a phenomenon where surface waters are warming up in parts of the Pacific Ocean by at least half a degree Celsius above the long-term average. According to most recent forecasts, the probability of the phenomenon occurring this year is very high, 99%, and with a 66% probability it will be strong.
<img src="https://content.inderes.se/assets/d1bc2cdb-196b-44ea-9eb5-e9e0b9ded1cb?width=949&amp;height=584" alt="Elnino Eng1" />
Source: ECB
In the economy, this phenomenon is particularly evident in food production: in some cases it causes heatwaves resulting in downpour and in others drought. It is very difficult to forecast regional impacts but the historical analysis presented in the Economic Bulletin shows that the phenomenon has a widespread effect on increasing food prices. The report states that the temperature fluctuation caused by El Ni&ntilde;o &ldquo;accounts for almost 20% of global commodity price inflation movements since 1963 and that a normal El Ni&ntilde;o event tends to raise real commodity price inflation by around 3% for 6-12 months after its emergence, with the strongest contribution coming from food commodities&rdquo;. If El Ni&ntilde;o is strong, global food commodity prices could rise by as much as 9%.
<img src="https://content.inderes.se/assets/b8fe18e4-990e-4d90-b1b2-e82b157945c3?width=944&amp;height=538" alt="El Nino Eng 2" />
Source: ECB
The price increase would be highest 16 months after the onset. Based on these figures the phenomenon cannot be ignored by a simple shrug even at central banks, which is probably why it is included in the bulletin. For example, in the Bloomberg consensus estimate, the contribution of food prices to inflation is expected to dissipate completely in the coming months. If a stronger El Ni&ntilde;o materializes, the weather may hold a inflationary surprise and the "higher for longer" interest rate mantra will get new backers. Therefore, an informed investor should also dig out their internal meteorologist and follow El Ni&ntilde;o news.

El Niño – the inflation surprise for the end of the year?

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