Analytikerkommentar

WindowMaster: Strong 2026 guidance signals step-change in profitability and growth

WindowMaster has updated its 2025 guidance and, for the first time, provided guidance for 2026. The update points to a clear inflection in profitability, supported by improving order momentum and strong operational gearing.

For 2025, revenue is now expected at DKK 268–275m (previously DKK 270–290m), while EBITDA guidance is narrowed and lifted at the midpoint to DKK 23–26m (previously DKK 22–27m), corresponding to an EBITDA margin of ~8.3–9.7%. While revenue growth is no longer expected in 2025, earnings are set to improve, driven by a more favourable sales mix, with projects and services accounting for a larger share. This supports operating leverage in the people-intensive project and services division.

Full-year order intake for 2025 is expected at DKK 270–280m versus DKK 280m in 2024. While still reflecting a challenging market, this suggests that conditions are stabilising rather than deteriorating. Management highlights improving order intake in H2 2025 and a positive project pipeline, consistent with the picture from H1, where project delays masked intact underlying demand for intelligent indoor climate and natural ventilation solutions.

For 2026, WindowMaster guides for organic revenue growth of 7–14% to DKK 290–310m and EBITDA of DKK 45–55m, implying an EBITDA margin of ~16–17%. This represents close to a doubling of margins year-on-year, underlining very strong operational gearing. The outlook is supported by expectations of a gradually improving business environment during 2026, particularly in H2, driven by energy-efficiency regulation and renovation activity in Europe, with Germany highlighted as a key market. Management notes, however, that uncertainty remains around the timing of when this will translate into firm orders.

It should also be noted that 2025 was impacted by non-recurring costs of DKK 3.5–4.0m, while cost levels and investment spending in 2026 are expected to remain broadly in line with 2025. As such, the earnings uplift is primarily driven by operating leverage rather than incremental cost increases.

The 2026 guidance is close to WindowMaster’s strategic targets of 10–15% annual revenue growth and a profit before tax margin above 10%. Combined with strong cash conversion, higher EBITDA is expected to reduce financial gearing materially, with NIBD/EBITDA well below the 2.0x target by year-end 2026. For reference, NIBD/EBITDA stood at 2.3x at the end of H1 2025, with net interest-bearing debt of DKK 50.4m.

Overall, the update supports the view that 2025 represents a temporary weak year driven by postponed projects, while the 2026 guidance signals expectations that market conditions are bottoming out. Execution risk remains tied to the conversion of the project pipeline into orders and the pace at which regulatory-driven demand, particularly in Germany, materialises.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from WindowMaster for a Digital IR agreement. Michael Friis 15:25, 16/12/2025.

WindowMaster tilbyder avancerede ventilationsstrategier, der gør det muligt for byggebranchen at reducere sit CO2-aftryk betydeligt. Med målsætningen »At skabe en bedre verden, hvor alle har frisk luft indendørs og et sikkert bygget miljø« udvikler, producerer og distribuerer virksomheden facade- og tagautomatiseringsløsninger til hybridventilation, naturlig ventilation og røgventilationssystemer. I løbet af de seneste fire år (2020-2024) har WindowMaster leveret en rentabel vækst med en omsætningsvækst på 12 % (CAGR), samtidig med at både EBITDA og cashflow er blevet forbedret. Virksomhedens resultater har vist større modstandsdygtighed end den bredere byggematerialesektor, understøttet af dens eksponering over for det mere stabile renoveringssegment, det stærkt regulerede marked for røgkontrol og voksende investeringer i den grønne omstilling. En disciplineret kapitalallokeringsstrategi har skabt betydelig værdi gennem investeringer i innovation, egen produktionskapacitet og den globale salgsorganisation. Disse initiativer har cementeret WindowMasters stærke markedsposition på kernemarkederne i Europa og Nordamerika. Med en robust platform for både organisk og uorganisk vækst er WindowMaster godt positioneret til at skabe langsigtet værdi for aktionærerne. I 2025 udbetalte virksomheden sit første udbytte siden børsnoteringen, hvilket afspejler dens sunde økonomiske fundament og forpligtelse til at skabe værdi for aktionærerne.

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