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Analytikerkommentar

Verve strengthens its European business with a strategic acquisition

Af Christoffer JennelAnalytiker
Verve Group

Oversigt

  • We view Verve's acquisition of Acardo Group AG as strategically important, enhancing its European presence, particularly in the German market, and aligning with its growth strategy in the retail vertical.
  • The acquisition strengthens Verve's offerings in Consumer Packaged Goods and retail segments by integrating Acardo's technology, which facilitates "shoppable campaigns" linking digital ads to in-store or online purchases.
  • We assess the financial impact of the acquisition as moderate, with a small positive effect on Verve's revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2025, but it does not alter our overall view or recommendation for the company.

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Verve announced on Tuesday that it is acquiring German-based Acardo Group AG for a purchase price of 24.5 MEUR. Acardo is a company specializing in digital consumer activation solutions with strong ties to German retail and consumer product brands. The acquisition aligns with Verve’s broader strategy, with European expansion and growth in the retail vertical representing key focus areas among others. Although the financial impact of the transaction is minor in the short term, it is strategically important and supports the company's growth story in Europe. However, given the size of the acquisition, the transaction will only have a small impact on our estimates and valuation and does not impact our view on the company. We will update these at the latest in conjunction with the Q3 report. 

Acardo brings a stronger foothold in the German retail media landscape

Acardo is a leading player in German consumer activation, and its coupon and cashback solutions are integrated into over 5,600 retail stores (e.g., Edeka, Kaufland, and Rewe). The company's customer base includes over 200 international consumer product brands, such as Unilever, Nestlé, and Mars.

We view the acquisition to be strategically suitable for Verve, as it strengthens the company's position in Europe and particularly on the German market. Acardo's technology enables Verve to offer its demand-side clients "shoppable campaigns" that link digital ads (mobile, CTV, DOOH) directly to measurable in-store or online purchases. This enhances the company's offering, particularly in the Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) and retail segments, where the company is strategically investing. In addition, the transaction brings an experienced local sales team to Verve.

The company also noted, following its recent challenges with platform integrations, that the acquisition of Acardo will not require technological integration, given Acardo’s existing technological setup.

Moderate valuation and a positive, albeit small, impact on financials

The purchase price is 24.5 MEUR, of which 17.2 MEUR will be paid upon closing and 7.3 MEUR after 12 months. Based on the release, the calculated valuation multiples are around 6x EBITDA before synergies and around 4x after synergies, which we consider moderate, considering Verve’s own valuation (EV/EBITDA 2025-2026e: 6-4x).

The transaction is expected to close on October 1, 2025, so Acardo will be consolidated into Verve's financials starting from the last quarter of 2025. Therefore, it is expected to contribute 3.5–4.5 MEUR to Verve's 2025 revenue and 0.9–1.2 MEUR to its EBITDA, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 26%, and represent ~1% of our current revenue and EBITDA estimates, at the midpoint. For the full year 2025, the company estimates pro forma figures of around 15 MEUR in revenue and 6 MEUR in EBITDA (incl. synergies), which would correspond to a 3-4% impact on our top line and EBITDA estimates. The EBITDA margin, including synergies, is also clearly higher (~40%) than Verve's group-level margin (LTM adj EBITDA-%: 30%). The company's previously issued guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, as it did not include potential acquisitions. The transaction will lead to small positive revisions to our estimates for 2025 and subsequent years, and does not impact our overall view or recommendation for the company at this stage.

Verve (Ticker: VER) is a fast-growing, profitable, digital media company that provides AI-driven ad-software solutions. Verve matches global advertiser demand with publisher ad-supply, enhancing results through first-party data from its own content. Aligned with the mission, “Let’s make media better,” the company focuses on enabling better outcomes for brands, agencies, and publishers with responsible advertising solutions, with an emphasis on emerging media channels. Verve’s main operational presence is in North America and Europe. Its shares are listed on the Nasdaq First North Premier Growth Market in Stockholm and the Scale segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The company has three secured bonds listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Open Market.

Læs mere på virksomhedsside

Key Estimate Figures18.08

202425e26e
Omsætning437,0489,2535,6
vækst-%35,7 %11,9 %9,5 %
EBIT (adj.)107,1105,2129,3
EBIT-% (adj.)24,5 %21,5 %24,1 %
EPS (adj.)0,240,220,37
Udbytte0,000,000,00
Udbytte %
P/E (adj.)12,87,84,6
EV/EBITDA7,35,24,0

Forumopdateringer

Delvist temmelig passivt-aggressivt formulerede spørgsmål, men mon ikke Christoffer får dem formuleret, så de bliver stuerene
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af Vara-Paavi
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1. Hvad er den ene ting, Verve i øjeblikket fejler med, og hvordan vil I rette op på det inden for 90 dage? 2. Sammenlignet med jeres konkurrenter...
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af Putti
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Især indeværende års pengestrøm har været svag. Man kunne spørge mere detaljeret om pengestrømsprofilen, hvordan arbejdskapitalen udvikler sig...
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af yellowbeak
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Det mest væsentlige spørgsmål er nok, tror de, at de i fremtiden igen kan nå 2024-niveauet for rentabilitet, nu hvor dette år har haft lavere...
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af Geologiopiskelija
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Hej allesammen! Jeg har nu fået positive signaler fra virksomheden om et interview med Remco i næste uge. Hvis I har spørgsmål, er I velkomne...
2.12.2025, 09.09
af Christoffer Jennel
33
Hej @Mikemagnificent! Jeg er helt enig i, at et længere interview med Remco ville være værdifuldt givet den seneste udvikling. Jeg vil unders...
25.11.2025, 10.45
af Christoffer Jennel
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Hej @christoffer.jennel Kunne vi få et lidt længere interview / Roast med Remco om virksomhedens situation? (Ikke en hurtig 15-minutters session...
24.11.2025, 20.55
16
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