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Analytikerkommentar

Verve continues with acquisitions and strengthens its demand side

Af Christoffer JennelAnalytiker
Verve Group

Oversigt

  • We expect the acquisition of Captify Technologies to significantly strengthen Verve's demand-side platform by enhancing its data capabilities and expanding its sales force, aligning with the industry's shift towards a cookie-less environment.
  • In our view, the acquisition is strategically important due to Captify's unique search intent dataset and strong advertiser relationships, despite its lower margins and recent restructuring.
  • We assess that the acquisitions of Captify and Acardo will collectively add around 56 MEUR in revenue and 11 MEUR in EBITDA on a full-year pro forma 2025 basis, highlighting Verve's strategic focus on selective M&A to complement its organic growth.
  • According to the company, the 2025 full-year guidance remains unchanged, but we will provide updated estimates considering the acquisitions' impact in the near future.

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Verve announced on Wednesday that it is acquiring ad-tech company Captify Technologies Ltd for a purchase price of 25.6 MEUR. Captify is one of the largest independent search intelligence platforms globally, analyzing up to 1 billion daily searches and aggregating ~400 billion active data points per day. The acquisition aligns well with Verve’s strategy of strengthening its demand-side platform (DSP) business, broadening its sales force, and enhancing its data capabilities. While the near-term financial impact on Verve’s 2025 results will be limited due to the timing of consolidation, the deal is strategically important, particularly in light of the industry’s ongoing transition to a cookie-less environment. Considering the annualized impact of this deal, and in combination with the Acardo acquisition announced earlier this week, we will get back with updated estimates in the near future.

Captify strengthens Verve’s demand side and data assets

Captify brings relationships with all major global advertising agencies and around half of the world’s top 100 advertisers, thereby complementing Verve’s expansion on the DSP side. The company also contributes ~30 salespeople located in the US, UK, and Australia, supporting Verve’s stated ambition to materially increase its sales force in 2025–2026. Technologically, the acquisition is attractive as it brings Verve one of the largest search data sets outside of "walled gardens". This is valuable considering the industry’s ongoing transition towards a cookie-less future and enhances the data capabilities of Verve's Helix platform (its audience intelligence platform).

Moderate valuation and meaningful financial contribution from 2026 onwards

Of the total purchase price of 25.6 MEUR, 16.2 MEUR will be paid within six weeks of closing and 9.4 MEUR in deferred contingent consideration after 18 months. The transaction values Captify at around 7x EBITDA before synergies and around 5x after synergies, which is slightly higher than Acardo (~6x/4x) and somewhat in line with Verve’s own 2025–26e EV/EBITDA (6-4x). We also note that Captify operates at lower margins (pro forma 12% EBITDA margin, based on company figures) than both Acardo (~40%) and Verve (30%, LTM) and that it has recently undergone restructuring measures, which arguably increase the uncertainty around near-term profitability. However, we still consider the multiple moderate in light of the strategic importance of its unique, large-scale search intent dataset and its strong advertiser relationships. These assets are scarce, globally scalable, and especially valuable as the industry shifts away from cookies.

On a full-year pro forma 2025 basis, Captify is expected to generate ~41 MEUR in revenue and ~5 MEUR in EBITDA (including synergies). However, since the transaction is consolidated from mid-September 2025, the impact on reported 2025 figures will be limited to ~12–13 MEUR in revenue and 1–2 MEUR in EBITDA. Taking Tuesday’s acquisition of Acardo also into account, these acquisitions add around 56 MEUR in revenue and around 11 MEUR in EBITDA (including synergies) on a full-year pro forma 2025 basis, corresponding to an uplift of ~11% in revenue and ~8% in EBITDA relative to our current estimates. The company reiterated that its 2025 full-year guidance remains unchanged, as it does not include the impact of acquisitions. However, following these acquisitions, we will get back with updated estimates in the near future.

Two acquisitions in quick succession highlight Verve’s strategic intent

With Acardo (announced on Tuesday) and Captify (announced yesterday), Verve has executed two acquisitions in less than a week, underlining its strategic focus and willingness to execute on selective M&A in the highly fragmented ad-tech industry despite its key focus on organic growth. We found the acquisitions of Acardo and Captify to be highly complementary, where Captify adds consumer intent data and global advertiser access, while Acardo adds POS activation data and European retail penetration. Together, these acquisitions enhance Verve’s ability to connect consumer intent (search), ad exposure (via its multi-channel platform), and consumer action (POS redemption). We believe these acquisitions deepen Verve’s ability to deliver measurable outcomes at scale outside the walled gardens, further strengthening its positioning and supporting its long-term growth story.

Verve (Ticker: VER) is a fast-growing, profitable, digital media company that provides AI-driven ad-software solutions. Verve matches global advertiser demand with publisher ad-supply, enhancing results through first-party data from its own content. Aligned with the mission, “Let’s make media better,” the company focuses on enabling better outcomes for brands, agencies, and publishers with responsible advertising solutions, with an emphasis on emerging media channels. Verve’s main operational presence is in North America and Europe. Its shares are listed on the Nasdaq First North Premier Growth Market in Stockholm and the Scale segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The company has three secured bonds listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Open Market.

Læs mere på virksomhedsside

Key Estimate Figures18.08

202425e26e
Omsætning437,0489,2535,6
vækst-%35,7 %11,9 %9,5 %
EBIT (adj.)107,1105,2129,3
EBIT-% (adj.)24,5 %21,5 %24,1 %
EPS (adj.)0,240,220,37
Udbytte0,000,000,00
Udbytte %
P/E (adj.)12,87,84,6
EV/EBITDA7,35,24,0

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