Saab: Colombia Gripen deal lifts Aeronautics outlook

Saab has announced in a press release that it has signed a 3.1 BNEUR (~34 BNSEK) contract with the Colombian government for 17 Gripen E/F fighter jets. The order is a major win for the Aeronautics business area and strengthens both its order book and revenue visibility for the coming years. The contract supports our already positive view of the Gripen platform’s competitiveness and the long-term fundamentals of the business and will lead to upward revisions to our estimates by our Q4 earnings preview at the latest.

Order includes 17 Gripen and full support package

Saab has signed a 3.1 BNEUR contract with the Colombian government for 17 Gripen E/F fighter jets, with deliveries planned for 2026-32. The order covers 15 single-seat Gripen E and 2 two-seat Gripen F aircraft, along with associated equipment, weapons, training, and services. In parallel, Saab and the Colombian government have signed two offset complementary agreements that anchor a broader industrial cooperation package in Colombia, including projects in aerospace, cybersecurity, and sustainable energy.

Colombia order strengthens Aeronautics’ order book

The order was not a complete surprise, as Colombia has been negotiating a Gripen acquisition for some time. Still, the formal confirmation and the size of the deal are clearly positive. The contract adds 17 aircraft to the Gripen order book, which we had estimated at ~88 aircraft about a month ago. This is a meaningful uplift that adds ~34 BNSEK to Aeronautics’ order book and strengthens long-term revenue visibility (5+ years). The implied value per aircraft is ~182 MEUR, which we see as very strong given that earlier fully loaded export packages, such as Brazil and Thailand, were in the ~140–150 MEUR range. A fully loaded package typically bundles aircraft, weaponry, training, services, and additional support. While largely anticipated, we see this as a significant step for Saab, as it further reinforces the group’s ability to convert strategic international opportunities into firm contracts.

The deal supports upward estimate revisions

The order is a significant boost for the Aeronautics business area, whose profitability development has recently been weaker than the group’s other divisions, partly due to the start-up costs of the T-7A program. The new contract improves capacity utilization and provides a firmer revenue base for 2026-32. The delivery profile fits well with Saab’s plan to lift Gripen output from what we currently deem at ~10 aircraft per year toward the 20 per year or more that the company is targeting. An average of ~2-3 aircraft per year from this order can be easily absorbed within that higher capacity and helps to reinforce the revenue path for Aeronautics. The order is a testament to the Gripen platform’s competitiveness and supports our positive long-term view on the division. Even when spread evenly over the delivery period, the ~4.9 BNSEK per year implied by the contract is significant against our current Aeronautics revenue estimate of ~22.8 BNSEK in 2026 (~2.0 BNEUR) and is also meaningful relative to our expected 2026 group revenue of ~89 BNSEK. That said, our Aeronautics estimates for the coming years already assume increasing Gripen delivery rates, an expectation that this contract now reinforces, so simply adding the contract value evenly over the delivery years would be misleading. The fact that Saab has committed to deliveries in 2026-32 indicates that management is confident in its ability to deliver within that window, although we expect the delivery profile to be back-end loaded as production ramp-up takes some time. Still, the size of the contract is clearly material and will drive upward revisions to our estimates for 2026-32 in connection with our Q4 earnings preview, at the latest.