Revenio Q3'25 preview: Expectations for profit growth despite uncertainties

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance 10/15/2025 (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2025 at 7:30 am EET.

Revenio will publish its Q3 report on Thursday at around 9.00 am (EET). We expect the company to achieve good revenue growth, although the weakening US dollar and uncertainty caused by US tariffs are creating difficulties. The company's growth has been broad-based in previous quarters, and we expect deliveries of the renewed MAIA to have reached full speed. Thanks to high gross margins, we also expect a clear improvement in earnings from a relatively weak comparison period, but the cost structure may be increased by investments in clinical studies.

We expect brisk comparable growth

We expect Revenio's Q3 revenue to be around 26.3 MEUR, which would mean a good growth of about 10% from the comparison period. The EUR/USD exchange rate has stabilized at around 1.17 in recent months, which should have partially mitigated currency headwinds. However, we primarily aim to forecast growth adjusted for FX effects, which is significantly more important in the long term. We believe sales have been strong in the US, even though the EU import tariff rose to 15% during Q3. The company previously responded to this by raising prices and increasing inventories. However, the potential impact of tariffs on customer behavior is a clear uncertainty factor for the rest of the year, as approximately half of Revenio's revenue comes from the United States.

In H1, Revenio succeeded in growing its sales across a broad front, and we expect this to have continued. We expect the most significant "acceleration" to come from the new MAIA microperimeter, deliveries of which we expect to have been in full swing in Q3. Otherwise, we expect good sales in tonometers (iCare ST500 supports growth), their probes, and imaging devices (especially iCare DRSplus and EIDON). We also expect the iCare ILLUME screening solution to have continued its strong development, and HOME2 is also presumed to have continued its good growth.

Significant earnings improvement expected

We expect Q3 EBIT to have been 7.1 MEUR (Q3’24: 5.5 MEUR), which would imply a strong EBIT margin of 27.0% (Q3’24: 23.0%). The significant earnings improvement is driven by revenue growth and a rising gross margin, which we estimate to have been around 72% (Q3'24: 69%). At this margin level, the result flows efficiently to the lower lines, even though there is clear upward pressure on fixed costs. We also estimate that the costs related to the iCare ILLUME screening solution's FDA application remained relatively low, even though we slightly increased these in our forecasts in connection with the earnings preview. In H2, we believe clinical trials should progress again after a quiet start to the year. In H1, Revenio's result has been burdened by significant financial expenses, which have been recorded as the US dollar has significantly weakened against the euro. In Q3, however, financing costs should be at a relatively normal level, as the EUR/USD change has been small during Q3. We expect the company to have been able to eliminate the effects of US import tariffs on profitability, but there is uncertainty associated with this. We made small negative forecast revisions in connection with the earnings preview, but our forecasts are slightly higher than consensus estimates for Q3.

We do not expect material changes in the outlook

For 2025, Revenio has guided for year-on-year revenue growth of 6-15% at constant exchange rates and good profitability excluding non-recurring items. In H1, revenue growth adjusted for currency effects was 9.6%, and we expect roughly similar growth in Q3. The seasonally strongest and busiest period for deliveries is always Q4, when growth in our forecasts remains significantly lower. Revenio should reach the guidance range without problems and possibly also close to 10%, but the upper end of the range already seems very challenging. Thus, narrowing the guidance range, especially from the upper end, could be timely in connection with Q3.

We look forward to the company's comments on market developments, particularly in the United States, where there are many uncertainties but little factual information so far. In our view, the big picture of the industry has not changed significantly, even though there have been a relatively large number of events. Topcon, in particular, has staked out its strategic areas through acquisitions and arrangements, but we do not foresee dramatic effects on Revenio. The general development of the industry has been relatively subdued in 2025, and at least in the early part of the year, Revenio gained market share.