Puuilo Q3'25 preview: Commendable progress expected compared to the industry

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/9/2025 at 7:58 am EET.

Source: Inderes & Bloomberg (consensus, 4 analysts)

Puuilo will report its Q3 earnings on Wednesday, around 8.30 am EET. The company's revenue is expected to continue growing rapidly, despite the market situation, supported by new store openings. We expect the operating result to have increased proportionately with revenue. The scalability of the cost structure will therefore likely be interrupted temporarily due to cost pressures brought on by the record pace of store openings.   To meet growth expectations, the company should, at a minimum, reiterate its guidance. Puuilo's results broadcast in Finnish can be watched on InderesTV on Wednesday at 11.30 EET.

Revenue growth supported by new stores

We forecast that Puuilo's Q3 revenue has grown by 12% to 114 MEUR, driven primarily by new store openings, but also by a slight increase in comparable revenue. The consensus forecast (118 MEUR) is slightly higher than our estimate. In our view, the slight growth in comparable store revenue is supported by steadily increasing customer numbers in older stores, though we also believe that the decline in average purchase value will continue to negatively impact growth in euro terms. One factor weighing heavily on average purchases is the challenging operating environment, which has resulted in customers focusing their consumption on products/categories with lower price points (e.g., private label products). For this reason, growth in like-for-like store revenue is expected to remain below Puuilo's historical level (~5%) also in Q3.

We anticipate margin development in line with the comparison period

We expect Puuilo's adjusted EBITA for Q3 to rise to 22 MEUR, corresponding to an impressive 19.3% profitability for retail sales, consistent with the comparison period. According to our estimates, the consensus forecast is nearly 23 MEUR (exact figure unavailable). We believe the improvement in the operating result is supported by volume growth but anticipate that the gross margin will remain at the good level of 38% seen in the comparison period and that the fixed cost structure will increase in line with revenue growth. In our view, the cost structure is driven by record growth in the store network and wage inflation, the impact of which is partially offset by the company's excellent cost control. We anticipate financing costs to rise year‐on‐year due to higher debt levels and the store network (the IFRS 16 interest rate component will increase) but to remain at the previous quarter's level of 1.4 MEUR. Overall, we expect Q3 adjusted EPS to settle at EUR 0.19 (consensus EUR 0.20), corresponding to an increase of approximately 2 cents from the comparison period. In anticipation of the report, we revised our quarterly forecasts due to more precise store opening schedules. However, the estimate changes had no practical impact on our full-year 2025 forecasts.

Guidance should remain at the current level as a minimum

As a minimum, we expect the company to reiterate its guidance, indicating revenue of 425–455 MEUR and adjusted EBITA of 70–80 MEUR for the 2025 financial year. We also do not rule out raising the lower end of the range if Q3 goes as expected and the outlook for Q4 appears positive. The consensus (and our) estimates for 2025 are revenue of 443 MEUR and adj. EBITA of around 78 MEUR. Especially considering the high growth expectations (15-20%) for Q4, it is crucial for the company to demonstrate that the slowdown in comparable growth in Q2 (revenue ~1%) was only temporary, caused by market factors. Alternatively, the company should succeed in improving its profitability in H2, contrary to current analyst expectations. Other key topics in the report include strategic development areas, such as private label development, rate of customer number growth, new store development and outlook, and internationalization. Management's comments on the operating environment are also of interest.