NYAB Q1'25 preview: Favorable market conditions in Sweden and M&A to boost revenue growth

NYAB will release its Q1 report on Wednesday. We expect strong revenue growth (Q1’25e: +55% y/y), mainly driven by M&A effects and favorable market conditions in Sweden. We also expect the operating margin to improve, supported by a favorable project mix, reduced seasonality, and sustained cost efficiency. Beyond the figures, management’s commentary on the market outlook, Dovre integration, and strategic direction will be key focus areas.

Seasonally smallest quarter but M&A to boost top-line growth

We forecast NYAB's Q1 revenue to increase by 55% year-on-year to 92 MEUR, with Dovre's consolidation accounting for most of the increase. From Q1’25, NYAB will split its reporting into Civil Engineering (Swedish and Finnish construction) and Consulting (Dovre businesses and Sitema Oy). We estimate Civil Engineering will grow by 12.5%, primarily driven by Sweden, where market conditions remain favorable. This is also reflected in the year-to-date order intake, with NYAB announcing orders totaling 1 BNEUR (some 91 MEUR), which supports our revenue outlook for Sweden in 2025-2026. Conversely, we expect Consulting revenue to contract ~13% y/y to 25 MEUR, due to ongoing headwinds in Norway related to changes in temporary hire legislation, which remains the segment's largest market.

Profitability improvements in Q1 despite one-offs

Moving down the income statement, we estimate EBIT to amount to 1.3 MEUR (Q1’24: 0.4 MEUR), reflecting an EBIT margin of 1.4%. Adjusted for ~1 MEUR in Dovre-related one-off transaction costs, adjusted EBIT would be 2.3 MEUR (2.5% margin), a notable improvement (y/y) considering Q1 has historically been loss-making. We attribute this improvement to strong revenue growth, sustained cost efficiency, reduced seasonality, and, in particular, Dovre’s contribution. On the bottom line, we expect losses from associates to remain stable compared to 2024, while we expect slightly higher financial expenses than 2024 (adjusting for one-offs tied to re-domiciliation) due to increased leverage following the Dovre acquisition. Given this overall picture and after taxes, we estimate net profit to reach 0.3 MEUR (Q1’24: -0.6 MEUR).

We expect NYAB to deliver double-digit growth despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty

For 2025, we estimate NYAB’s revenue to reach 487 MEUR (FY24: 346 MEUR), representing 41% growth (y/y), with an EBIT margin of 6.6% (FY24: 7.6%) excluding one-off costs. Dovre’s consolidation is expected to add ~100 MEUR to revenue, with Consulting forecasted to decline ~10% (y/y) and Civil Engineering to grow by 12%. The year-on-year margin pressure is attributed to the lower-margin Project Personnel business that makes up the majority of revenue included in the Consulting segment.

As of now, we believe NYAB is largely insulated from the current global trade and geopolitical turmoil due to its Nordic focus (~90% of revenue in 2024) and that sourcing of materials, products, and services used for its operations primarily come from Sweden and Europe, with a smaller part outside Europe (mostly Asia). In addition, the company’s focus on less cyclical and counter-cyclical infrastructure markets should also mitigate demand risks. That said, we don’t believe that the company is completely immune to a weakening economy and/or tightening fiscal policy, if that materializes. We, therefore, expect a weaker business cycle to at least tighten the competition somewhat for projects within the company's markets. Lastly, management’s comments on the 2025 outlook, strategic priorities, and Dovre integration progress will be key areas of interest in the Q1 report.