Kempower Q3'25 preview: The upward trend continues

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/22/2025 at 07:00 am EEST

Kempower will announce its Q3  results on Wednesday, October 29, at around 9.30 am EEST. We expect Kempower to continue the upward trend in its order intake, supported by, e.g., new customer acquisition. The strong order growth in the early part of the year is likely to have been reflected in Q3 revenue growth, which we estimate has brought the EBIT close to break-even. Analyst Pauli Lohi comments on the earnings report in real time in Finnish, and you can watch the live broadcast from this link on the earnings day at 9.25 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus: 7 analysts)

We estimate Kempower to have increased orders and gained market share

Kempower’s orders have been clearly recovering in the last quarters (H1: +35% y/y) and we expect that the trend will continue in Q3. We estimate new orders to have grown by 35% from the comparison period, while the consensus expects 41% growth. We estimate that Kempower has recorded at least one large individual order in Q3 (estimated value of 2-5 MEUR), but its significance to the overall picture is limited. In our estimate, we give the most weight to the order growth trend in the early part of the year and to positive market drivers such as the growth in electric car sales and the electrification of heavy transport. Kempower's geographical expansion and the intensified new customer acquisition in recent years are likely to support growth relative to the market growth rate. The growth in new charging point openings by large listed charging station operators such as Tesla, EVGo, and Fastned has relatively slowed down recently, but on the other hand, new operators have entered the field, including in heavy transport solutions, where Kempower has also found customers.

Revenue growth enabling the achievement of a break-even result

We estimate Q3's revenue to be 70 MEUR, which is a 34% increase relative to the comparison period. Our forecast is slightly lower than the consensus (72 MEUR). The growth we estimate is practically a direct continuation of the H1 order intake growth (35%) and, if realized, would be a clear improvement compared to H1 revenue growth, which was only 6% on the back of a weak order book. In our view, the clearly improving revenue provides the conditions for at least a zero-level operational EBIT (our estimate 0.1 MEUR, consensus 1.6 MEUR), whereas in the comparison period, the company generated a negative operational EBIT of -7.9 MEUR. We expect that the gross margin remains at a strong level of almost 50% (Q3’24: 51.3%).

Growth guidance could be revised slightly downwards, earnings clearly improving

Kempower has guided that revenue will grow by 10-30% in 2025. Our estimate of 18% is slightly below the midpoint and at the same level as the consensus. We consider it possible that the company could revise its growth guidance slightly downwards, particularly for the upper end. Operational EBIT is guided to improve significantly from 2024 (-26.4 MEUR), which we believe will be achieved. Our estimate for the full-year operational EBIT is -3.2 MEUR, assuming earnings improve towards the end of the year, supported by growth, and turn clearly positive in Q4 (5.6 MEUR).