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Analytikerkommentar

GomSpace – 2025 guidance raised on both top- and bottom line

Af Michael FriisHead of Equities
GomSpace Group

Oversigt

  • GomSpace has increased its 2025 revenue guidance to SEK 420–450m and EBITDA margin to 6%–12%, up from previous estimates of SEK 320–380m and –2% to +10% respectively.
  • The company maintains a positive cash flow outlook for 2025, despite potential risks from delayed customer payments affecting operating cash flow.
  • Management highlights operational gearing with improved margins, expecting a ~25% higher topline and significantly increased EBITDA on midpoint assumptions.
  • GomSpace will release its Q3 2025 Trading Statement on November 6, 2025, with a live presentation and Q&A session by CEO Carsten Drachmann.

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This morning, GomSpace raised its 2025 guidance for both revenue and EBITDA, while maintaining its qualitative (positive) guidance on cash flow, as the company notes an operational ramp-up has increased working capital.

GomSpace now expects revenue of SEK 420–450m (previously SEK 320–380m) and an EBITDA margin of 6%–12% (previously –2% to +10%). Management also reiterates that, excluding one-off costs, the EBITDA margin would be about 1 percentage point higher (i.e., 7%–13%). Cash flow is still expected to be positive in 2025 (unchanged).

On midpoint assumptions, the new guidance implies a ~25% higher topline (SEK ~435m vs. ~SEK 350m previously) and materially higher EBITDA (your illustration: ~SEK 39m vs. ~SEK 8m). Encouragingly, the stronger topline is reflected in improved margins, indicating operational gearing; at the top end, the margin guide is 12% vs. 10% previously.

We do not view the lack of an upgraded cash flow target as a negative signal in itself. Management had already highlighted the need to build inventory and activity ahead of deliveries to execute on the backlog, and the company reports it is fully funded to do so. That said, GomSpace now also indicates later-than-anticipated customer payments toward year-end, which introduces a modest risk of a miss on cash flow and could prime the market to expect negative operating cash flow when Q3 2025 results are released.

GomSpace is still expected to release its Q3 2025 Trading Statement on November 6, 2025. On the same day at 15:00 CET, GomSpace’s CEO, Carsten Drachmann, will present the results in a live online event, followed by a Q&A session.

Sign up here:

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gomspace-presentation-of-q3-2025-trading-statement

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from GomSpace for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 08.10, 16. October 2025.

Gomspace Group er en IT-virksomhed. Virksomheden udvikler, designer og sælger nanosatellitter. Produkterne er udviklet til at levere sporing, kommunikation og cybersikkerhed og bruges i dag i en række forskellige industrier, herunder forsvar og sikkerhed, luftfart og telekommunikation. Driften foregår på globalt plan med hovedkontor i Aalborg.

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