Columbus has today lowered its 2026 guidance and published preliminary Q3 2026 results.

The EBITDA margin guidance for 2026 is lowered from 8-10% to approximately 6%, while organic revenue growth is narrowed from 0-5% to 2-3%. The preliminary Q3 figures show revenue up 6% to DKK 367m and EBITDA of DKK 18m, corresponding to a margin of 4.8%. Adjusted for DKK 20m in severance provisions from a capacity adjustment affecting more than 80 employees, Q3 EBITDA was DKK 38m and the margin 10.3%. The new strategy will be announced on 5 November alongside the Q3 interim report.

The downgrade is the risk we placed first among the key investment risks in our Q2 investment case. An H1 EBITDA margin of 5.1% implied an H2 margin of roughly 11-15% to reach the 8-10% guidance, against 6.8% in H2 2025, and we flagged elevated risk of a downgrade if the ramp-up slipped. It has now slipped. What matters for the case is why, and the answer is better than the headline suggests.

The underlying quarter is the strongest Columbus has delivered since the slowdown began. Growth accelerated from 2% in Q2 to 6% in Q3, confirming management’s guidance that already signed contracts would mobilise through H2. More importantly, the adjusted margin of 10.3% sits above the top of the original full-year guidance range and compares with 4.0% in Q2 2026 and around 4% in Q3 2025, in what is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year. The central question in our case was whether returning growth is margin-accretive. This is the first quarter that answers yes, and it does so on the quarter with the least seasonal support.

The revised guidance also resets the bar for Q4 to a far more achievable level. With 9M revenue of around DKK 1,205m and reported 9M EBITDA of around DKK 61m, guidance of 2-3% growth and roughly 6% margin implies Q4 revenue of approximately DKK 403-418m and EBITDA of around DKK 35m, close to the DKK 35m and 9.0% margin delivered in Q4 2025. The old guidance required Columbus to outperform its own best recent quarter. The new one requires it to repeat last year’s. That is a materially lower risk of a second disappointment.

The capacity adjustment is the part with the longest reach. Management frames it as aligning competencies with AI-driven delivery models and mobilising for the new strategy, which is precisely the mechanism our case described when we argued that AI is moving out of delivery efficiency and into the revenue model. Cutting more than 80 roles while revenue accelerates 6% should lift efficiency toward the 70% target that we identified as the key margin lever. The annualised effect on the cost base is not quantified, and it is the single most important number for 2027 earnings. It belongs at the top of the question list for 5 November.

On valuation, the mechanical effect is a higher multiple on a lower base. Our Q2 case put Columbus at 10.1x EV/EBITDA 2026E on the then guidance midpoint of DKK 145m. On approximately DKK 97m, the 2026 multiple rises towards 15x, or roughly 12-13x adjusted for the one-off, against Nordic IT peers at around 8.5x.

We would not read much into that. 2026 is a transition year with a restructuring charge and a weak H1 embedded in the base, and the multiple says more about the depressed earnings base than about what Columbus is worth.

The valuation will instead be carried by the new strategy and the financial targets that come with it on 5 November. Columbus has been without restated long-term ambitions since Q2, and that vacuum, more than the 2026 guidance, is what has kept the market from underwriting the recovery. Credible targets for growth and margin, anchored in the adjusted Q3 margin of 10.3% and the leaner cost base, are what give investors a 2027 and 2028 earnings level to value the company on.

Clearing the guidance issue two weeks ahead of the strategy announcement looks deliberate. It removes the negative overhang so the strategy can be judged on its own terms, and with the 10% growth and 15% EBITDA margin ambitions no longer restated since Q2, the new long-term targets remain the key re-rating event for Columbus.

Columbus CEO & President Søren Krogh Knudsen and CFO Brian Iversen will present the Q3 results in a live online event on 5 November at 13:00 CET.

Sign up and submit your questions here:

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/columbus-presentation-of-interim-report-q3-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Columbus for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 16.45 CET, 22-10-2026.