Atria and HKFoods: China raises import tariffs on pork

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 09/08/2025 at 08:43 am EEST

According to preliminary information, the tariff level for Finland is not changing radically, meaning direct effects would remain small. Tariffs may also have indirect temporary effects through an oversupply of pork and increased competition in the EU. According to our estimate, pork exports to China have accounted for approximately 1% of revenue for both Atria and HKFoods.

China to impose tariffs on EU pork

News agency Bloomberg reported on Friday that China will impose tariffs on pork imported from the European Union. The threat of tariffs emerged about a year ago when the EU imposed tariffs on electric cars manufactured in China. There is no official information yet on the level of tariffs, but according to Bloomberg, tariffs would be set between 15.6% and 62.4% for different countries. HKFoods CEO Juha Ruohola commented in Kauppalehti that, according to his contacts, a 31.3% tariff would be imposed on Danish and Dutch companies and 20% on other European companies. According to Markku Hirvijärvi, head of Atria Finland's meat business, China has so far applied a 12% tariff on pork imports.

The tariffs now proposed do not apply to poultry exports, which the companies began to China at the turn of 2024–2025. The possibility of new poultry tariffs has not yet emerged, but there is a risk of this if relations between the EU and China deteriorate further in the future.

The direct impact of new tariffs on earnings is likely to be small

There is still uncertainty in assessing the earnings impact of the new tariffs, as there is no official information on changes to the tariffs. If tariffs were to rise from the current 12% to 20%, it would likely not have a significant impact on Atria's and HKFoods' business (estimated impact under 1 MEUR), as a small change could probably be offset by price increases. We estimate that Atria’s and HKFoods’ pork exports to China are roughly in the range of 10 MEUR annually (per company). The companies export pork parts to China for which there is no demand for food use in Europe, and which would otherwise end up, e.g., in energy use via the Honkajoki company. If tariffs were to rise by several tens of percent, this could have a small impact on the companies' earnings (e.g., a 30% tariff increase could mean a 1.5 MEUR loss of earnings if half of the tariff could be offset by pricing).

Indirect effects are possible

In addition to direct effects, tariffs may cause an oversupply of pork in Europe, thus intensifying competition, e.g., in Finland or Estonia (where Atria has pork-related business operations). Continental European companies have also exported meat products to China, for which there could be demand within Europe. However, we estimate that the potential oversupply will correct itself over time as these meat producers reduce their production volumes.