Tempest Security: Solid steps forward - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Sales +SEK 17m, EBITDA -SEK 1.2m vs. ABGSCe
* '26e-'27e EBITDA estimates likely flat
* Share to focus on the volume and earnings improvements
Q4 details
Tempest delivered a Q4 report with both sales and EBITDA growth. Sales came in at SEK 155m (12%% vs. ABGSCe), 27% y-o-y, driven by Guarding, and partly offset by Risk Solutions. EBITDA grew SEK 8m y-o-y to SEK 2.4m (-SEK 1.2m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 1.5% (ABGSCe 2.6%, -4.4% Q4'24) driven by both Guarding and Risk Solutions. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive progress in Guarding, where the new contracts signed in late 2024 are now starting to show in the numbers; the initial costs have been absorbed and volumes have increased. There is a SEK 0.5m one-off cost due to restructuring.
Estimate changes and outlook
Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that focus remains to increase the internal efficiency, cost control after a period of streamlining the organisation. We consider Tempest's positive internal development to be signs that it is taking important steps in the right direction. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA to stay relatively flat.
Final thoughts
A report in the right direction report with sales and profitability growth. The share has underperformed the broader market into numbers (-13% YTD vs. OMXSGI +5%). We believe that the market will recognise the volume and earnings improvements resulting from Tempest's hard internal work.
* '26e-'27e EBITDA estimates likely flat
* Share to focus on the volume and earnings improvements
Q4 details
Tempest delivered a Q4 report with both sales and EBITDA growth. Sales came in at SEK 155m (12%% vs. ABGSCe), 27% y-o-y, driven by Guarding, and partly offset by Risk Solutions. EBITDA grew SEK 8m y-o-y to SEK 2.4m (-SEK 1.2m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 1.5% (ABGSCe 2.6%, -4.4% Q4'24) driven by both Guarding and Risk Solutions. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive progress in Guarding, where the new contracts signed in late 2024 are now starting to show in the numbers; the initial costs have been absorbed and volumes have increased. There is a SEK 0.5m one-off cost due to restructuring.
Estimate changes and outlook
Looking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that focus remains to increase the internal efficiency, cost control after a period of streamlining the organisation. We consider Tempest's positive internal development to be signs that it is taking important steps in the right direction. We expect estimates for '26e-'27e adj. EBITDA to stay relatively flat.
Final thoughts
A report in the right direction report with sales and profitability growth. The share has underperformed the broader market into numbers (-13% YTD vs. OMXSGI +5%). We believe that the market will recognise the volume and earnings improvements resulting from Tempest's hard internal work.