* Benefiting from becoming a larger company
* Eyeing a Nordic expansion
* Potential in the SOC business
Focusing on the Guarding
This Friday, we hosted Tempest Security CEO Andrew Spry at ABGSC's Investor Days. Tempest Security released its Q1'26 report on Thursday, delivering a solid set of numbers with earnings exceeding ABGSC's expectations. Mr. Spry's presentation focused on the future of the Guarding segment, which accounts for roughly 90% of group revenue and is therefore central to the investment case. The segment has undergone significant changes over the past few years and is now in a stronger, more focused position. Performance has improved and Tempest is now exploring a Nordic expansion. The CEO was clear that this will be pursued with care and discipline, establishing operations only in countries where existing clients have a demonstrated need for Tempest's services.
Growing revenue and lifting margins
Additionally, Mr Spry discussed how to think about volumes and margins in the Guarding segment going forward. Following the termination of the Scania contract in 2024, the short-term focus was on replacing the lost volume, which Tempest managed well without seeing a drop in revenue. However, raising profitability on the new contracts has taken time, driven by a substantial recruitment need in new regions that led to elevated overtime costs and weighed on margins. The level of maturity has now improved, and profitability has followed. Historically, the Guarding segment has delivered margins around 9%, and we argue that margins of 12–13% should be achievable ahead.
Cleaned and set for 2026
We believe the company has taken important steps throughout 2025 with the divestment of the US business and the turnaround in Denmark. There are further efficiencies to be gained from the recently signed contracts in Guarding, as profitability typically improves gradually after the initial start-up period. The SOC is an interesting part of the group given its 100% scalability, and we believe the newly appointed management will make a difference in terms of sales focus and strategic direction for the group.