* EBITA margin -90bp y-o-y driven by well-flagged UK logistics...
* ...which are likely to weigh on Q3-Q4 as well before move is done
* We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77
Undramatic Q2, Thebalux was strong
UK growth slowed driven by softer end-markets, as previously flagged. The 2% reported UK org. growth is consistent with continued market share gains, however. In the Nordics, the consumer market was described as soft, but the project arm of the business kept growing. All in all, we consider the Q2 report rather undramatic - growth slowed slightly vs Q1 to +2% org., a deceleration that can be explained by tougher comps, and UK logistics kept weighing on profitability, as it did in Q1. From here, we expect a gradual recovery in Nordics, for Central Europe to keep performing well (Thebalux grew 4.5% org. y-o-y in Q2 and we assess its margin expanded ~1pp), but also for the UK market to remain soft throughout '26e.
We await Roper Rhodes warehouse move in Q4
During the conference call, Svedbergs Group's CEO stated that UK logistics difficulties accounted for 0.8-1pp of the y-o-y margin decline for the Group. The Group EBITA margin decline was 90bp y-o-y, meaning UK logistics drove the full y-o-y margin contraction. We expect similar negative profitability effects from logistics in Q3, and a smaller effect in Q4 before the new warehouse is fully live. The CEO also said consultant costs weighed on Nordics Q2 profitability by ~SEK 1m, brought in to help turn the margin trend for the better (Nordics EBITA margin declined 20bp y-o-y in Q2).
Svedbergs is trading at 11x/9x '26e/'27e EV/EBITA
We make only minor EBITA revisions in this note. Below the EBITA line, one-off M&A costs weighed for a downward revision of 6% on '26e net profit, mostly related to Q2 revisions. We raise our EPS forecasts due to a different UBC-related accounting than we had expected - it is fully consolidated. We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 57-77, corresponding to 9-11x '27e EV/EBITA.