Lumi Gruppen: Textbook acquisition - H2'25 preview - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* FY'25e adj. EBIT NOK 81m
* Accretive acquisition
* Fair value range of NOK 15-25
'25e adj. EBIT NOK 81m
We pencil in H2'25e revenues of NOK 260m, up 9% y-o-y. This implies FY'25e revenues of NOK 496m, +10% y-o-y. We have fine-tuned our EBIT estimates and have included somewhat higher costs related to the Edrupt acquisition, but we leave our adj. EBIT estimates unchanged. We pencil in adj. EBIT of NOK 81m for the full-year '25, which implies NOK 45m for H2'25. Regarding margins, we see a group adj. EBIT margin at 17.3% for H2'25 and 16.3% for the full year. The company has strong revenue visibility, with ~90% of its revenues the following year locked in during autumn. For the academic year '25/'26e, we see group revenues of NOK 541m and adj. EBIT of NOK 99m, which implies Sonans and ONH revenues up 6% and 12% y-o-y.
Accretive acquisition
Lumi announced in Dec '25 that it had acquired Edrupt, the company behind the EnkelEksamen digital platform. Edrupt provides online video courses and AI learning tools that help students prepare for exams. The deal was done at a '25 EV/EBIT of 14.3x (vs. Lumi 18.4x), but note that parts of the EV are structured as earn-out payments and outperformance consideration, i.e the upfront payment is NOK 71.7m and will be financed through existing facilities. For FY'25, Edrupt is expected to post revenues of NOK 40m (+20% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 10.5m (+50% y-o-y and 26% margin). For '26e, we see Edrupt revenues of NOK 46m (+15% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 12m (+14% y-o-y). This increases our FY'26e estimates by 8-11%, and our AY '25/'26e revenue is up 4%.
Fair value range of NOK 15-25
A peer valuation using '25e-'27e multiples points to NOK 12-25/sh, but narrows to NOK 18-25 when looking at '26e-'27e multiples only. Lumi is trading at '26e/'27e EV/EBIT of ~12.3x/9.4x and a P/E of ~17.5x/13x, while enjoying strong earnings growth and relatively high barriers to entry.
* Accretive acquisition
* Fair value range of NOK 15-25
'25e adj. EBIT NOK 81m
We pencil in H2'25e revenues of NOK 260m, up 9% y-o-y. This implies FY'25e revenues of NOK 496m, +10% y-o-y. We have fine-tuned our EBIT estimates and have included somewhat higher costs related to the Edrupt acquisition, but we leave our adj. EBIT estimates unchanged. We pencil in adj. EBIT of NOK 81m for the full-year '25, which implies NOK 45m for H2'25. Regarding margins, we see a group adj. EBIT margin at 17.3% for H2'25 and 16.3% for the full year. The company has strong revenue visibility, with ~90% of its revenues the following year locked in during autumn. For the academic year '25/'26e, we see group revenues of NOK 541m and adj. EBIT of NOK 99m, which implies Sonans and ONH revenues up 6% and 12% y-o-y.
Accretive acquisition
Lumi announced in Dec '25 that it had acquired Edrupt, the company behind the EnkelEksamen digital platform. Edrupt provides online video courses and AI learning tools that help students prepare for exams. The deal was done at a '25 EV/EBIT of 14.3x (vs. Lumi 18.4x), but note that parts of the EV are structured as earn-out payments and outperformance consideration, i.e the upfront payment is NOK 71.7m and will be financed through existing facilities. For FY'25, Edrupt is expected to post revenues of NOK 40m (+20% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 10.5m (+50% y-o-y and 26% margin). For '26e, we see Edrupt revenues of NOK 46m (+15% y-o-y) and adj. EBIT of NOK 12m (+14% y-o-y). This increases our FY'26e estimates by 8-11%, and our AY '25/'26e revenue is up 4%.
Fair value range of NOK 15-25
A peer valuation using '25e-'27e multiples points to NOK 12-25/sh, but narrows to NOK 18-25 when looking at '26e-'27e multiples only. Lumi is trading at '26e/'27e EV/EBIT of ~12.3x/9.4x and a P/E of ~17.5x/13x, while enjoying strong earnings growth and relatively high barriers to entry.