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Third party research

Incap: Risks related to revenue volatility have not abated - Nordea

Incap

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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We expected positive organic revenue growth for Q1, but organic growth was flat. A weaker-than-expected EBITA margin also indicates an unfavourable sales mix in the quarter. Moreover, the integration of Lacon in February could have affected profitability more than previously forecast. Incap kept its full-year guidance for a clear improvement in net sales and adjusted EBITA intact, despite the weak start to the year. We lower our estimates for this year slightly, due to demand weakness. Incap has not seen any order cancellations and witnessed some recovery in demand in March-April. Still, the risks for the full-year have increased with the Q1 report. Our fair value range remains at EUR 11.7-14.3 per share, based on our DCF analysis, backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's 2026E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are currently 39% below the peer group median, but it needs to show a stronger track record on operational performance in order to lower the valuation discount to peers.