contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  createdAt
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
    forum {
      threadUrl
    }
    defaultInstrument {
      symbol
      id
    }
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  createdAt
  changedAt
  isPremium
  authors {
    __typename
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  tags {
    name
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        threadUrl
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        symbol
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
      researchContentUrl
      researchContent {
        title
        lang
        pdfUrl
        relatedContent {
          __typename
          ...PublishingDetails
          ...Reactions
          id
        }
        content {
          title
          lang
          htmlBody
          publishedAt
          createdAt
          changedAt
          isOutdated
          isPremium
        }
      }
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


incap-profit-warning-due-to-margin-pressure-nordea

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

changedAt

Incap operates in the industrial sector. The company supplies equipment and services for industrial players, where the range includes PCB assembly, system integration, box building integration, design validation, and inspection methods. The largest operations are found in the Nordic, Baltic and Asian regions. The company was originally established in 1985 and is headquartered in Helsinki.

That is a truly cynical piece of writing. One can, if they choose, see Incap as stagnating or slowly withering away. I think these risks were well dissected in the thread. In the interest of balance, it would also be good to highlight the potential for growth that the current climate offers. The defense sector, renewable energy, data centers, etc. Electronics. It’s hard to see how there wouldn’t be demand. Who gets to meet that demand, however, is a different matter. I agree with the author that now would be a good time to take a breather from growth and pay out dividends to shareholders as a reward for years of holding, because if you bought Incap 5 years ago, your return percentage is -24%. That is very little for a company that has performed very well at times. For the same reason, I don’t feel Incap is expensive.

Almanakka has been writing about Incap as well   Incap has become known as the most profitable contract manufacturer in the Nordics. Last year, its comparable operating margin was ~12%, while, for example, Kitron pushed ~9%, NOTE ~10%, HANZA ~9%, and Scanfil ~7%. What makes Incap so much better? And why is the stock price now less than a third of its peak?                    Sijoitustieto.fi              Incap – Pohjoismaiden kannattavin sopimusvalmistaja?    Incap on tullut tunnetuksi Pohjoismaiden kannattavimpana sopimusvalmistajana. Vertailukelpoinen liikevoittomarginaali oli viime vuonna ~12 %, kun esimerkiksi Kitron puski ~9 %, NOTE ~10 %, HANZA ~9 % ja Scanfil ~7 %. Mikä tekee Incapista näin paljon...

Here is Antti’s preview ahead of Incap’s earnings release this Thursday   We are cutting our target price for Incap to €9.00 (previously €12.00) following significant negative forecast revisions and an increase in the required rate of return after the profit warning issued by the company on Friday. However, we reiterate our “accumulate” recommendation for the stock, as its valuation remains very low despite the forecast cuts (2026e: EV/S 0.7x, EV/EBIT 7x). Incap will publish its Q2 report on Thursday, July 30.                    Inderes              Incap Q2'26 -ennakko: Tulosvaroitus jätti riskejä ikävän paljon auki - Inderes    Leikkaamme Incapin tavoitehintamme yhtiön perjantaina antaman tulosvaroituksen jälkeisten tuntuvien negatiivisten ennustemuutosten ja tuottovaatimuksen nousun takia 9,00 euroon (aik. 12,00 €). Toistamme kuitenkin osakkeen lisää-suosituksemme, sillä...

Here are the comments on Incap from Make, known from the Alokas haastattelee (Rookie Interviews) thread, following their negative profit warning. He has quoted an old tweet of his from early July in his tweet, which I have also included below.  https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/2081248983708545113     Here is the “quoted” tweet (which in turn quoted a tweet from December):  https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/2075311337501086097

Inderes              Incap: Incap downgraded its FY 2026 EBITA guidance to EUR 26-29m - Nordea -...    Incap confirmed its FY2026 net sales growth guidance but downgraded its EBITA guidance. The company expects revenue of EUR 270–290m in 2026 (consensus: EUR 282m), while the new adjusted EBITA...                              Incap confirmed its FY2026 net sales growth guidance but downgraded its EBITA guidance. The company expects revenue of EUR 270–290m in 2026 (consensus: EUR 282m), while the new adjusted EBITA guidance is EUR 26–29m. We calculate that the midpoint of the revised EBITA guidance represents an 8% downgrade to market consensus estimates. Lacon was consolidated in Q1 2026, and its profitability remains below Incap’s historical EBITA margins. We also believe that organic growth may have remained close to zero in H1 2026, particularly as the German market has been struggling. Component availability could also tighten in the EMS sector due to strong investment in data centres and AI-related solutions. In addition, an unfavourable sales mix in some customer segments may have weighed on Q2 profitability, resulting in a lower-than-expected EBITA margin. Incap’s EBITA margin was 9.2% in Q1 2026 and similar margin of 9-10% could now be a realistic consensus estimate for Q2 we believe.

Revenue is not the problem today; a comparable EBITA of €26–29 million is, if that is the current level. The market cap is approximately €224 million. Net cash is understandably lower than after the Lacroix acquisition in late 2025. Based on Inderes’ assumption, it would be around €15 million, meaning the EV would be €210 million. Is the stock cheap, then? In principle and in practice, it looks like it, both on an EV and P/B basis. The figures are at the lower end compared to Incap’s own history, and there are again 30–50% discounts available compared to peers. Yesterday, Inderes accepted a P/E of 12–15 and an EV/EBIT of 9–12x, provided the company has earnings growth, which is now, of course, less clear than it was yesterday.  As a point of comparison, let’s use 2023, when the EV/EBIT was allowed to slide to just over 7x, at which time the market priced in for a moment that the growth was over and would never return. The reason, however, was Victron’s inventory adjustments and a dip in volume. We are at a somewhat similar point now; compared to that, Incap would not be expensive, but the most unpleasant difference is that in 2023, the EBIT% remained around 12.7%, whereas now it is under significant pressure, and the market does not like that one bit.  Earnings growth for small Finnish companies has been particularly sluggish for several years now, and without clear earnings growth, there is no upside potential, all while the world is full of companies riding the AI boom growing at +40% YoY until 2030. IF that €27–29 million is the floor, growth continues, and the customer base continues to diversify—for example, via the defense industry—then the stock would be interesting, and the 2027e EV/EBITA would be only ~5.5–6x, taking into account that the median for peers is somewhere around 10–12x. If margin pressure continues in 2027, then today’s share price of €7.50–7.60 is likely in the right ballpark, and the upside potential is anemic. The most positive aspect is that the customer distribution and risk have clearly diversified due to the Lacroix acquisition, and the company now counts the large KNDS as a customer. I would assume that, due to their corporate profile, they prefer broad diversification of production and will continue to share business primarily with those who deliver and, above all, have been verified and confirmed as reliable. The defense sector is an option, not a driver. Since investing is about forecasting and anticipation, I assume Inderes will lower its target price to the €9.50–11 range, and the profit warning forces a 10–15% cut to the 2026 EBITA forecast, with more moderate figures for 2027 as well. Two unpleasant cuts are starting to become a trend, so the cut could be even more substantial; thus, the accepted multiples will be determined by which side of the bed the analyst wakes up on. A profit warning at this point in the year is dismal, so in Q2 we will see what the actual margin level is. Revenue, on the other hand, is likely quite solid in that rough range. If Incap’s margins and profitability begin to drift permanently toward those of its mortal peers, its luster will fade, the stock will become a boring plodder again, and the market has now begun pricing it as such.

So this profit warning depends on 2 factors;  Are the customers with Incap hoarding materials due to the ongoing PCB shortage and therefor want to secure materials in advance? Yes that will be a short term margin pressure, but positive for the company when orders are converted into sales Customers are postponing and not wanting to buy materials due to price and or uncertainty. Definitely a more negative sign on short-medium term. Factories underutilized and old materials piling up due to postponements.  For me it wasn’t completely clear in the profit warning, on the weighting between industry weakness and material shortages

Incap

We downgrade our full-year 2026 EBIT forecast by 10% due to the profit warning issued on 24 July. The company expects revenue of EUR 270-290m in 2026, while the new adjusted EBITA guidance is...

We downgrade our full-year 2026 EBIT forecast by 10% due to the profit warning issued on 24 July. The company expects revenue of EUR 270-290m in 2026, while the new adjusted EBITA guidance is EUR 26-29m. The share price dropped 14% on the day of the profit warning, highlighting growing uncertainty. Incap's profitability has come under pressure in certain market segments, but the midpoint of the company's net sales guidance indicates 30% y/y growth for 2026. We believe that profitability challenges stem from EV chargers and older industrial customers. In addition, weakening component availability could raise input costs. Our new fair value range is EUR 10.6-12.9 (11.7-14.3) per share, based on our DCF analysis, backed by a peer group comparison. Incap's 2026E P/E and EV/EBIT combined are  44% below the peer group median, and the company will need to show a stronger track record on operational performance in order to lower the valuation discount to peers.

Incap: Profit warning due to margin pressure - Nordea

Incap: Profit warning due to margin pressure - Nordea