Copyright © Inderes 2011 - present. All rights reserved.
  • Latest
  • Markets
    • Stock Comparison
    • Financial Calendar
    • Dividends Calendar
    • Research
    • Articles
  • inderesTV
  • Forum
  • About Us
    • Our Coverage
    • Team
Third party research

Careium: Careful steps forward - ABG

Careium

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

Download report (PDF)
* Q3: Softer than expected, but back to growth* We cut our sales and adj. EBITA estimates* Share is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj.Softer than expectedCareium delivered solid sales in Q3, with organic growth of 9.4% compared to -8% in Q3'24 and -9% in Q2'25. The results on both sales and adj. EBIT were lower than we expected, but still represent a vast improvement from H1'25. The Nordics weighed on growth, down 14% y-o-y. Excluding the effect of financial leases, Careium commented that Q3 organic sales growth in the Nordics would have been 11%. The GM improved to 44.2%, 1.5pp over Q3'24, following increased overall efficiency coupled with a favourable sales mix. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 19m, up 2% y-o-y, with a margin contraction of 0.4pp to 9%.The year of tough comps is soon over2025 has so far faced tough comps, as Careium is moving away from financial lease contracts, which include up-front revenue. Starting in Q1'26, these up-front revenues will no longer be included in the comps to the same extent. Moving forward, recurring revenues will increase, which improves visibility. Moreover, we are encouraged by the seemingly positive trend in the underlying markets. That said, Q4'25e faces much tougher comps on both sales and earnings (compared to Q3). Careium reiterated its financial targets for '25e, where it calls for increased sales, profitability and cash flows. We believe that increased organic sales and FCF are within reach, but assess that raising adj. EBIT y-o-y will be difficult.We cut sales and adj. EBITA estimatesWe cut '25e-'27e sales by ~1% on the back of the report and updated FX movements. '25e EBIT is downwardly revised by 11%, mainly due to the mechanical impact of the earnings miss, of which the majority was caused by an NRI and should not be fully extrapolated into '26e-'27e. We do, however, lower adj. EBITA by 5-2% following the report. On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 11x-7x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj.
Find us on social media
  • Inderes Forum
  • Youtube
  • Facebook
  • X (Twitter)
Get in touch
  • info@hcandersencapital.dk
  • Bredgade 23B, 2. sal
    1260 København K
Inderes
  • About us
  • Our team
  • Careers
  • Inderes as an investment
  • Services for listed companies
Our platform
  • FAQ
  • Terms of service
  • Privacy policy
  • Disclaimer
Inderes’ Disclaimer can be found here. Detailed information about each share actively monitored by Inderes is available on the company-specific pages on Inderes’ website. © Inderes Oyj. All rights reserved.