BTS Group: Ahead of plan on growth recovery - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* FY guidance as expected, but Q1 comments ahead of plan
* '26e adj. EBITA -5-7% on lower '25 base and FX but growth recovers
* 15% adj. EBITA growth 2026e, share at 7.4x EV/EBITA
Focus on the positive growth outlook
The Q4 report was below both our and FactSet consensus estimates on sales and adj. EBITA, but the focus on the day was on the forward-looking guidance. The FY guidance of "2026 EBITA better than 2025" was expected, in our view, as if one assumes no non-recurring items in 2026, reported EBITA would rise by ~10%. BTS has also entered a period when it sees major cost reductions behind it, and the challenging North American market in 2025 is starting to show positive momentum. In the conference call, BTS therefore guided for positive organic growth and EBITA growth in North America already in Q1 and for the FY, which shows that BTS is ahead of plan to return the important region to growth.
Adj. EBITA cut by 5-7%
The FY guidance has no major impact on our estimates, as we already expected BTS to deliver organic growth and better margins. However, the Q4 miss reduces the starting point somewhat combined with less favourable FX movements, meaning that we reduce '26e and '27e sales and adj. EBITA by 5% and 7%, respectively.
Important to dispel AI worries
The global management consulting sector has had a tough time on the stock market, partly due to worries about lower demand and higher competition from AI. BTS's share is down 22% in the past 6 months (despite +28% today) and Accenture is down -25% the last month. The positive growth outlook from BTS is therefore appreciated and the share is trading at 7.4x 2026e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. In 2026, we estimate 6% organic growth, 15% adj. EBITA growth and 27% reported EBITA growth (BTS does not adjust for one-offs when it provides its FY outlook). Given the net cash position, growth guidance and current valuation, we argue that buybacks would be welcome.
* '26e adj. EBITA -5-7% on lower '25 base and FX but growth recovers
* 15% adj. EBITA growth 2026e, share at 7.4x EV/EBITA
Focus on the positive growth outlook
The Q4 report was below both our and FactSet consensus estimates on sales and adj. EBITA, but the focus on the day was on the forward-looking guidance. The FY guidance of "2026 EBITA better than 2025" was expected, in our view, as if one assumes no non-recurring items in 2026, reported EBITA would rise by ~10%. BTS has also entered a period when it sees major cost reductions behind it, and the challenging North American market in 2025 is starting to show positive momentum. In the conference call, BTS therefore guided for positive organic growth and EBITA growth in North America already in Q1 and for the FY, which shows that BTS is ahead of plan to return the important region to growth.
Adj. EBITA cut by 5-7%
The FY guidance has no major impact on our estimates, as we already expected BTS to deliver organic growth and better margins. However, the Q4 miss reduces the starting point somewhat combined with less favourable FX movements, meaning that we reduce '26e and '27e sales and adj. EBITA by 5% and 7%, respectively.
Important to dispel AI worries
The global management consulting sector has had a tough time on the stock market, partly due to worries about lower demand and higher competition from AI. BTS's share is down 22% in the past 6 months (despite +28% today) and Accenture is down -25% the last month. The positive growth outlook from BTS is therefore appreciated and the share is trading at 7.4x 2026e EV/EBITA on our updated estimates. In 2026, we estimate 6% organic growth, 15% adj. EBITA growth and 27% reported EBITA growth (BTS does not adjust for one-offs when it provides its FY outlook). Given the net cash position, growth guidance and current valuation, we argue that buybacks would be welcome.