contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Sale of Internal Combustion Engine Cars Will Not Be Banned After All – EU Yielded to Strong Resistance The European Union has abandoned its plans to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine cars in 2035, says the chairman of the European Parliament’s largest group, the EPP.                   kauppalehti.fi              Polttomoottoriautojen kielto kumottu    Euroopan unioni on luopunut aikeistaan kieltää uusien polttomoottoriautojen myynti vuonna 2035, kertoo Euroopan parlamentin suurimman ryhmän EPP:n puheenjohtaja.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2764078-german-cabinet-passes-eu-red-iii  The German government approved the biofuel bill, according to which “double counting” will be removed from the beginning of the year. And this is retroactively from the beginning of the year, even if the final decision is not made by the beginning of the year.

It seems that Verbio today gave a positive impact to Neste’s share price, too. Solid start in Q1 2025/26; forecast for 2025/26 confirmed “Verbio confirms the forecast communicated with the publication of the annual report on September 25, 2025: The Management Board expects to achieve EBITDA in the high double-digit million range in the financial year 2025/26. The board bases this on historical market spreads1 that are below the spreads achieved in the financial year 2024/25, while it expects GHG quota prices to recover compared to the previous year.” “Claus Sauter, Chief Executive Officer of Verbio SE, commented: “The demand for molecules and the GHG quotas in the market make us optimistic. The market for bioethanol in particular remains tight. Even if the planned entry into force of RED III can no longer take place within the time frame foreseen due to the repeated delays in the cabinet, the ministries continue to assume that it will be applied retroactively. A new draft from the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Climate Protection, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN) has already been made public, and our initial view of this is positive overall. There has also already been a ministerial agreement to abolish double counting – a key driver for market recovery, alongside the reform of the protection of legitimate expectations.”

It’s probably difficult to calculate, but OP raised Neste’s target price to 27 euros.

Malinen admitted in the interview that he is not fully aware of everything, which I think is quite commendable for a CEO. It would be dangerous if he pretended to know. In my opinion, this also explains why Malinen did not buy the company, even though some considered it clearly undervalued. I quite fortunately doubled my position at the decade’s lowest price, under 7 euros, on April 9th, because I believed and still believe that RED-III will increase the demand for renewables, especially for advanced fuels and SAF, where Neste has a great strength. In hindsight, it’s easy to say it was a smart decision. My enthusiasm for buying was also not diminished by the fact that Anttonen, who is a deep expert in the field, also bought Neste in the spring, even though it is a competitor to St1. Of course, Anttonen seemed to have somewhat desperate dreams of separating renewables into a joint venture led by him, which I do not share. Now, in my opinion, the price is much more wisely valued, and future appreciation is based on Neste being able to beat competitors and maintain its market shares. Losing market shares is likely almost inevitable as competition becomes more global and larger, but I believe Neste enters this race from a very strong position, even though the technological advantage is closing at an increasingly faster pace, especially in HVO with easily accessible raw materials. SAF’s CAGR is around 50%, so I still don’t think Neste is too expensive, as Neste is a clear market and technology leader in the SAF market. I would buy even more at these prices if Neste’s weight in my portfolio wasn’t already excessive.

Yes, I also ask myself why I didn’t buy more Nordea or Sampo when they were available for 5e/share during the corona dip. Malinen probably had quite a few things on his table to consider during the first 6 months, and at least for me, the first thing on my mind would be how to turn the ship around, because then you’ll get a pretty nice number of those shares from the incentive program anyway.

According to OP’s morning review, Germany is considering removing the double counting of renewable diesel. Double counting = if you produce renewable diesel made from e.g. waste/used cooking oil, 1 physical tonne is counted as 2 tonnes in mandates, meaning it fulfills the blending obligation with an “oversized” factor. This has reduced the need for actual physical volume. If double counting is removed, Germany’s renewable diesel’s actual demand could increase by 1.5–2 Mt, which would be clear support for the market and Neste’s business. Has anyone calculated what such an additional demand of 1.5–2 Mt practically means for Neste on the bottom line?

Neste

On Tuesday, Neste lowered the guidance for Renewable Products' 2024 sales margin reflecting especially the weakness in the market caused by increased supply. We cut both our short- and medium-term forecasts driven by a fall in the sales margin.

<p>On Tuesday, Neste lowered the guidance for Renewable Products&apos; 2024 sales margin reflecting especially the weakness in the market caused by increased supply. We cut both our short- and medium-term forecasts driven by a fall in the sales margin. We feel the valuation of the stock is quite reasonable with clearly more conservative sales margin forecasts. We believe this supports a positive view even though no quick relief is in sight for the difficult market situation.</p>

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	22,925.9	19,287.2	23,056.0
growth-%	-10.8 %	-15.9 %	19.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,591.5	1,002.6	1,578.4
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.3 %	5.2 %	6.8 %
EPS (adj.)	2.88	1.02	1.62
Dividend	1.20	0.60	0.65
Dividend %	3.7 %	3.3 %	3.6 %
P/E (adj.)	11.2	18.0	11.3
EV/EBITDA	10.7	9.1	6.4

The headwind won't ease

Key Estimate Figures15.05.2024

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