Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/29/2026 at 6:30 pm EEST.

We reiterate our Reduce recommendation for Spinnova and our EUR 0.45 target price. We have not made any material changes to our forecasts for the commercialization progress of Spinnova's technology following the company's H1 news flow, even though Spinnova appears to have advanced its strategy both in terms of assembling a cooperation consortium around the technology and verifying the reduction of the technology's production and investment costs. However, the risk/reward ratio remains exceptionally difficult to assess, which is why we are maintaining a cautious stance on Spinnova for the time being. 

Progress made in consortium building during H1

During H1, Spinnova focused on building a consortium to promote technology scaling and on reducing the production and investment costs of its technology. The company has announced several new consortium members from various parts of the value chain during H1. However, in our view, it is still unclear who from the consortium would invest capital in a factory built on Spinnova's technology. Spinnova announced in H1 that it had started test runs at its Jyväskylä demo plant. We estimate that the company aims to demonstrate the production and investment cost reductions achieved on a small scale during H2'25 on a more industrial scale through test runs. The company also hinted at the possibility of initiating larger-scale production at its Jyväskylä plant during 2026. In our view, this could be possible, for example, by targeting a high-value niche segment, but starting production would, in our opinion, require successful test runs and would occur at the earliest towards the end of the year. 

Forecastability is exceptionally poor

We have not made changes to our Spinnova forecast scenario at this stage. We note, however, that in our current forecasts, we have not expected the company to actively use its Jyväskylä plant for production, and this type of use could change our forecasts starting from H2. We expect Spinnova's revenue to remain negligible for at least this year, accruing mainly from services sold to Respin and small fiber deliveries. According to our preliminary estimate, Spinnova could begin its first technology deliveries starting in 2027, but low revenue will keep the company's EBIT in the red until the early 2030s in our forecasts. In our projections, business operations will not begin to scale until the mid-2030s when more technology projects will be in delivery simultaneously and will be larger than those in the initial phase. Spinnova's cash position at the end of 2025 was 44 MEUR. We estimate that the company has 2–3 years to work on commercialization without immediate financing needs, although the duration of the cash reserves is also affected by the company's strategic choices. The main risks to our forecasts are failure to reduce technology investment and operating costs or to find technology customers, the slow progress of the sustainability trend, and the terms of further financing that commercialization may require.

Gauging the risk/reward profile remains challenging

It is exceptionally difficult to assess the risk/reward ratio of Spinnova's shares, and a positive risk/reward ratio is not apparent in our base scenario (cf. the DCF value is at our target price level, and the EV/S for the coming years is high). The key driver for the share in the near term is the news flow, for which the risks are somewhat balanced, as the company needs progress in consortium building and reducing production and investment costs (the latter is likely to be reported in the H1 report in August) to offset cash burn. Therefore, we maintain a cautious view of the stock for the time being.