Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/31/2026 at 9:32 pm EEST.

We reiterate our Reduce recommendation for Spinnova and our EUR 0.45 target price. We have not made any significant changes to our forecasts regarding the commercialization of the technology after reviewing the H1 report. The first test runs of the demonstration plant progressed as planned, though no significant new details were provided regarding production and investment cost development. It remains exceptionally difficult to assess the risk/reward ratio, and we believe that the expected return of Spinnova's share is insufficient relative to the high required return. 

Test runs at demo factory proceeded as planned

The most interesting aspect of the H1 report was the test runs at the Jyväskylä demonstration plant, which began in the spring. According to the company, the initial test runs were completed as planned, and both production volumes and fiber quality quickly reached the factory's previous operating performance. We view this as a positive indication of the production concept's viability. However, no substantial new numerical specifics regarding the development of production and investment costs were provided. The company states that the operational production cost is already competitive with higher-priced natural fibers, such as wool and linen. While developments therefore appear to be moving in the right direction, the time remaining until a commercial breakthrough and how demanding the development steps will remain very difficult to assess.

The company continued to expand its international consortium in H1 and also stated that it is continuing discussions regarding potential production and licensing opportunities in the US. However, earnings day did not provide new concrete details about the timeline or structure for proceeding to actual production investments with the consortium. Spinnova's cash reserves decreased to 38.5 MEUR at the end of H1, but we believe its financial position still allows 2–3 years for advancing commercialization. The plan for a US listing, announced after the reporting period, could strengthen the company’s financial position if it goes through, but the terms of the arrangement are still to be determined.

Forecastability is exceptionally poor

Given the wide tolerance for Spinnova's predictability, we have not made any changes to the forecast scenario beyond fine-tuning. We expect the company's revenue to remain very low this year, with the first technology deliveries possible from 2027 onwards. However, there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the schedule for technological development and partner negotiations. With revenue remaining low, our forecasts indicate that the company’s EBIT will remain in the red until the early 2030s, and we do not expect the business to begin scaling up until the mid-2030s.

Our forecast scenario requires an improvement in the cost competitiveness of the technology and acquisition of the first technology customers in the coming years. We have not included a potential US IPO in our estimates because its terms are not yet known. The main risks to our forecasts are the failure to reduce technology investment and operating costs, the failure to find technology customers, a slowdown in the sustainability trend, as well as the availability and price of further financing.

Gauging the risk/reward profile remains challenging

It is exceptionally difficult to assess the risk/reward ratio of Spinnova's shares, and a positive risk/reward ratio is not apparent in our base scenario (cf. the DCF value is at our target price level, and the EV/S for the coming years is high). In the near term, the key driver for the stock will indeed be news flow, as the company needs to make progress in building a consortium and finding production investors to offset its cash burn. In addition, the dilution associated with a potential US IPO creates a separate source of uncertainty for existing shareholders. Thus, we continue to maintain a cautious view of the stock for the time being.