Translation: Original published in Finnish on 09/23/2026 at 08:00 am EEST

We update Revenio’s target price as the rights issue progresses. The subscription rights have now been detached, which was reflected in the share price. We lower our target price to EUR 16.5 (was 19.0), which is close to the theoretical impact of a larger-than-expected share dilution. Our view of the company's fundamentals has not changed, and we reiterate our Buy recommendation. This also means that we recommend investors to subscribe for shares in the rights issue.

Terms and conditions of the rights issue published

Revenio announced on Monday the terms of its rights issue of around 80 MEUR. The company offers a maximum of 12.9 million new shares at a price of EUR 6.19 per share, and nine subscription rights entitle the holder to subscribe for four new shares. The subscription price is approximately 44% below the theoretical ex-rights price and came in well below our previous assumption of EUR 10. The issue is fully guaranteed: William Demant, Caravelle Capital, and the other Visionix sellers have committed to subscribing for approximately 31% of the shares, and the remainder is covered by Nordea's subscription guarantee.  The net proceeds from the issue of approximately 77 MEUR, will be used to repay the 80 MEUR bridge financing for the Visionix acquisition. The subscription period is September 28 to October 12. and subscription rights are traded from September 2 to October 6. After the issue, the number of shares will be around 42 million, meaning the share of new shares is around 31%. At a share price of EUR 11, the theoretical value of the subscription right is around EUR 2.14. Subscription rights will lapse worthless if they are not exercised or sold by October 6 at the latest.

We updated our research with the information from the share issue, and the target price decreased mainly mechanically

We updated the completed terms of the issue to our model. The size of the share issue of 80 MEUR used to finance the Visionix acquisition was known, but previously our model assumed a subscription price of EUR 10 and approximately 37.1 million shares after the issue. With a lower subscription price, the number of shares now increases to some 42.0 million. This mechanically decreased our EPS estimates, and, for example, our earnings per share estimate for 2027 fell by around 12% The increase in the number of shares does not represent a loss of value for current owners, as the lower subscription price makes the subscription rights correspondingly more valuable. The dilution affects those who neither subscribe nor sell their rights, although the latter claim assumes rational pricing of the subscription rights. This does not always happen, and selling pressure may apply to subscription rights, which would further reflect on the share. The mere change in the number of shares or the detachment of the subscription right (calculated using the target price) would have decreased the target price to EUR 16.77, but we rounded the target price slightly below this to EUR 16.5 We still believe that the completion of the share issue will remove excess uncertainty surrounding the share, after which the share will gradually begin to reflect more of the company's fundamental value.

Expected return is still attractive

Following the detachment of the subscription rights, the share is trading below the EUR 11 level, and in our view, the valuation level remains very low. The share's adjusted EV/EBITA is around 13x and EV/EBITDA around 11x on our 2027 estimates, which include limited synergies and substantial potential for earnings improvements. Based on our 2028 estimates, EV/EBIT is 10x, and even beyond that, we find the earnings growth outlook to be good as the integration phase extends well into 2028. The terms of the issue are now public; it is a fully guaranteed issue, and we believe its completion removes excess uncertainty and the selling pressure gradually weighing on the share. We expect earnings to improve during the remainder of the year, the financial situation to become clearer, and confidence in the future to strengthen as a result. We maintain our Buy recommendation and urge investors to be patient amidst a complex and lengthy process.