Revenio Q3'25: Q4 will decide this year too

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/31/20225 at 08:00 am EET

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance 10/15/2025  (consensus)

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for Revenio with a target price of EUR 28.0. Q3 earnings fell short of our overly optimistic expectations, but on the other hand, the Q4 outlook appears better than we anticipated. There have been no dramatic revisions in the outlook for the coming years, but the market is showing at least small signs of recovery. Overall, the Q3 report did not particularly impress in either direction, in light of which the stock's valuation also appears relatively neutral.

Our Q3 estimates were too optimistic

Revenio’s Q3 revenue (25.9 MEUR) grew by 8.7% at neutral exchange rates from the comparison period, which was slightly below our 10% forecast. Growth was again broad-based, but the specific acceleration we expected from deliveries of the new MAIA microperimeter was not observed. The only weak point in sales in Q3 was the APAC region, where customers struggled with "price increases" caused by the weakening of local currencies. In the US, sales were also good, and uncertainties do not seem to affect the overall picture substantially. Tariff-related price increases will start to be reflected in products towards the end of the year, once previous inventories have been depleted. EBIT adjusted for non-recurring items was 6.2 MEUR, or approximately 24.0% of revenue, which was clearly below our 27.0% forecast. There was no single reason for the deviation, but practically all lines in the cost structure were slightly higher than we expected. We were slightly optimistic in our Q3 estimates on every line, but overall, the development was again in the right direction.

Q4 will determine the performance for 2025

Revenio's guidance is still for FX-adjusted revenue to grow by 6-15% year-on-year and for profitability excluding non-recurring items to be at a good level in 2025. According to the company, the sales pipeline currently contains a significant number of potential larger orders, on the back of whose realization, postponement or loss, the seasonally very strong Q4 can still swing the full year's earnings. This is why it wanted to maintain a wide range, even though FX-adjusted growth (9.1%) in the early part of the year no longer supports the upper end. According to the company, Q4 has started well, and we expect FX-adjusted growth to be around 7% in Q4, corresponding to 8.6% for 2025. Operationally (excluding foreign exchange losses and non-recurring items), earnings will grow by around 10% this year, as the swelling cost base prevents scaling despite a gross margin of over 70%. Personnel costs, in particular, have increased, due to factors such as the strengthening of the US sales team. On the other hand, results from this can already be seen in Q4. We slightly cut our estimates for the coming years in terms of both growth and margin, but the revisions were moderate, and the big picture is practically unchanged. Next year, costs related to FDA studies will increase by around 2 MEUR, and the company is otherwise laying the groundwork for future growth through product development. We estimate operational earnings growth to be 15-20% in the coming years, provided that revenue growth reaches double digits (2026e +11%). Next year, the market may also provide good tailwinds after a relatively long quiet phase.  

Valuation picture is largely unchanged

Revenio's 2025e adjusted EV/EBIT is around 22x, which we consider neutral for the company. If the earnings growth we expect materializes, we expect the stock to be at a higher level a year from now (2026e EV/EBIT 18x). As the earnings growth outlook stabilizes after difficult years, we also see upside in the valuation, but this is unlikely to happen without evidence of stronger growth. We find Revenio's relative valuation to be moderate, considering the company is currently growing clearly faster than the market. Overall, we see Revenio's valuation as neutral, but stronger growth would be needed as a driver for upside.