Remedy Q1'26: Strong Q1 as a prelude to Control Resonant

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 19.0 target price for Remedy. Q1 figures were clearly better than we expected, as both development fees and game sales surprised positively. However, in the big picture, the Q1 figures are a side note, as the most important game release in Remedy's history is just around the corner. We still believe that Control Resonant will sell well and that the game's release will boost Remedy's stock. We also believe the stock's valuation is at an attractive level relative to the company's long-term potential. 

Q1 result clearly better than our expectations

Remedy's Q1 revenue decreased by 2% to 13.1 MEUR, significantly exceeding our 9.5 MEUR estimate. Development fees were recognized as expected from Max Payne Remake and Control Resonant, but their level (Q1'26: 8.2 MEUR) was higher than our expectations (6.0 MEUR). Royalties and own game sales for the quarter (Q1'26: 5.0 MEUR) also grew more strongly than our expectations (3.5 MEUR). We estimate that royalties from Alan Wake 2 and Alan Wake Remastered, in particular, exceeded our expectations. The games were available on Amazon Luna during the quarter, which appears to have generated a reasonably significant royalty. The significantly higher-than-expected revenue was also reflected in the earnings lines, and Q1 EBITDA (2.9 MEUR) significantly exceeded our forecast (-4.1 MEUR). Based on the cost structure, Control Resonant's marketing investments were still lower than we expected, which led to an even stronger earnings beat.

We shifted our assumption for the release of Control Resonant to Q3

As expected, Remedy reiterated its guidance, which anticipates revenue and EBITDA growth for 2026. The wording of the guidance is cautious, as, with the successful launch of Control Resonant, both revenue and EBITDA should, according to our calculations, grow significantly. The game's wishlist ranking (52) has continued to develop favorably since the Q4 report in February (67). According to Remedy, key predictive metrics are also on the right track for the game to become a "must-buy on day one." As the largest marketing investments have not yet begun, we shifted our previous assumption for the game's release from late Q2 to Q3. However, this only had a minor (~0.1 million copies) downward impact on our full-year 2026 sales forecast. We forecast Control Resonant to sell roughly 1.7 million copies in 2026 and about 2.2 million copies in 2027. As a result, we estimate Remedy's revenue to exceed 120 MEUR in 2026-2027, with EBITDA reaching ~24-26 MEUR. The starting points for strong game sales are good, as the original Control has sold over 6 million copies, and over 20 million players have played the game across various platforms.

We expect the release of Control Resonant to bring momentum to the stock

We believe in Remedy’s ability to create multiple high-quality and successful games in the long term, and considering the growth and profitability potential this offers, the company's current valuation is attractive. The long-term potential is indicated by the value of the baseline scenario of the DCF model (EUR 23.5). For Remedy's share value creation, it is essential for the company to succeed with the release of Control Resonant. A successful release would essentially enable the company to finance and publish its next projects itself. It would also further strengthen the value of the Control game brand. Remedy's valuation multiples will also remain very modest in the near-term years (2026e–2027e EV/S 1.3x–1.2x and EV/EBITDA 7x–6x), although the multiples will continue to fluctuate with the timing of game releases. With Control Resonant, Remedy's news flow will be on an upward trajectory towards the end of the year, and the release of the Max Payne Remake is also drawing closer. We believe Remedy's stock will receive support from these major game releases, and in a favorable scenario the potential is significant.