In connection with the publication of Pharma Equity Group's H1 2026 interim report and the arbitral award relating to the Portinho S.A. receivable, we have updated our investment case and our model.

The period was defined by two developments pulling in opposite directions. On the positive side, an arbitral tribunal issued an award confirming that PEG has a valid claim, granting EUR 10.5m plus interest and costs against Interpatium. The award is final, cannot be appealed and is enforceable in Portugal under the New York Convention. PEG consequently raised the carrying value of the receivable by DKK 5.6m to DKK 39.3m, against a gross carrying amount of DKK 71.2m. On the negative side, both lead programmes moved to the right. First patient enrolment in RNX-011 is now expected in late 2026 and in RNX-051 in late 2026 or early 2027, against H1 2026 for both programmes previously, and no timeline is given for the conclusion of licensing discussions.

Operationally, H1 2026 recognised no revenue and EBIT was negative DKK 6.9m. It is worth noting that the improvement in the net result was driven by the DKK 5.6m reversal of the expected credit loss allowance, which is recognised under net financials and is non-cash. Underlying operations were unchanged. Cash and cash equivalents stood at DKK 0.03m at 30 June, with the group financed through convertible instruments and ordinary loans during the period. FY 2026 guidance of revenue of DKK 3.0 to 8.6m and EBIT of negative DKK 5.8 to 11.4m was left unchanged.

Away from the two lead programmes, PEG strengthened its intellectual property. Reponex obtained a new European patent covering the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease including pouchitis, and the RNX-051 treatment regime application has entered national phase across nine markets. This supports a broader partnering approach, with market-specific licensing discussions underway in Japan, Abu Dhabi and India alongside the search for a global partner. Discussions regarding the acquisition of Otiom A/S continue but were not referenced in the H1 2026 report.

We have made three changes to our model. We have moved expected launch out by one year for all programmes, which reduces the modelled pipeline NPV from DKK 716m to DKK 628m, since patent expiry is unchanged and the delay therefore shortens the commercial window rather than shifting it. We have added the Portinho receivable to the equity bridge as a non-operating asset at its carrying value. And we have moved to a fully diluted share count of approximately 1,482m against 1,228m shares outstanding, reflecting convertible instruments that are settled in shares in all circumstances.

The key investment reasons are the repositioning strategy, which lowers clinical risk by building on previously approved active pharmaceutical ingredients while the out-licensing model limits capital requirements, the arbitral award confirming the group's largest balance sheet asset, both lead programmes now being operationally prepared with a finalised formulation and established production for RNX-051 and regulatory approval in place for the 32-patient RNX-011 trial, and the market-specific licensing tracks widening the partnering options beyond a single global agreement.

The key risks are the concentration of value in two Phase II programmes that have both slipped by roughly a year, the dependence of further pipeline development on securing a partner or additional capital with continued dilution through convertible instruments, the shift in the Portinho case from a question of legal validity to one of enforcement and timing, and the fact that revenue recognition remains tied to the timing of a first licensing agreement, which is inherently difficult to predict.

From a valuation perspective, our implied probability of success model indicates a base case PoS of 19%, against 16% in April 2026, and below the approximately 29% historical Phase II to launch benchmark. The share price is broadly unchanged since April, so the increase reflects our revised assumptions rather than any re-rating of the shares.

The Portinho receivable now accounts for a meaningful part of the valuation, equalling around 30% of the fully diluted market capitalisation. Adjusted for net debt, the market values the entire clinical pipeline at roughly DKK 95m, or around 15% of our modelled pipeline NPV.

For further details you can watch our H1 2026 event with management here: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/pharma-equity-group-praesentation-af-delarsregnskabet-for-h1-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Pharma Equity Group for a Digital IR agreement. /Michael Friis, kl. 13.45, 28/08-2026.