Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2026 at 8:20 am EEST.

Kalmar's Q1 figures were generally below our expectations, though earnings improved from the comparison period. Development was particularly overshadowed by challenges on the service side. Meanwhile, the company expects its market situation to remain stable despite uncertainties. We slightly lowered our earnings forecasts for the coming years due to the downward revisions we made to our service business forecasts. However, we view yesterday’s price decline as an overreaction, and we reiterate our Buy recommendation, though we lower our target price to EUR 46 (was EUR 48) in line with the forecast changes. 

Q1 figures fell short of expectations, particularly in Services

The company's Q1 revenue grew by 5%, still missing our forecasts in both segments. Kalmar's adjusted EBIT was 51.7 MEUR, an increase from the comparison period, but below our (60.0 MEUR) and consensus expectations (55.1 MEUR). Compared to forecasts, progress was weighed down by the development of Services, which the company attributed to the impact of tariffs and challenges in spare parts sales in North America. The segment’s margin fell well short of forecasts (Q1’26: 16.0% vs. Inderes' estimate 17.7%, consensus 18.0%) and declined from the high level recorded in the comparison period (19.0%). The Equipment margin also fell short of our expectations due to lower revenue but was consistent with the consensus. Group expenses were lower than we had forecast.

Kalmar’s order intake (451 MEUR, -6% y/y) in Q1 also moderately fell short of both our (461 MEUR) and the consensus expectation (467 MEUR). However, order intake remained stable compared to the 2025 average. The shortfall relative to forecasts came from Services (-6% v/v vs. Inderes and consensus +4% y/y), while the order trend for Equipment (-6% y/y) was in line with expectations. According to the company, the decline in orders was due to a strong comparison period marked by sizeable equipment orders and service agreements. Nevertheless, in our view, the development of Services remained lackluster.

Earnings forecasts for coming years show slight decline

Kalmar reiterated its guidance and expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5% this year. The company reported that the overall demand situation remained stable in Q1 and expects total demand to remain roughly at the previous quarter's level for the next 6 months. Trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty increase the risks. So far, effects of the situation in the Middle East on Kalmar have been minor, but if prolonged, we believe the situation would have an impact through inflation and slowing economic growth. Overall, the market outlook was well in line with our expectations.

We did not make any material changes to our Equipment estimates for the next few years, but we did decrease our Services estimates. Kalmar was confident that it could improve service margins in the coming quarters, but we estimate that the pace of improvement will be slower than we had previously expected. The negative estimate changes for Services were partly offset by the decrease in group costs. As a result of these changes, our forecasts for operational earnings in the coming years decreased by 2-3%. We expect the adjusted EBIT margin for 2026 to be 13.0% (was 13.3%). However, we project that earnings growth will remain at a good level in the coming years (2026e-28e adj. EBIT growth: 6-12%/year), supported by growth in container traffic, the company's strong market position, and the Driving Excellence program. This projection is based on our assumption that the situation in the Middle East will not have long-term negative effects on the global economy.

Valuation is attractive

With our updated forecasts, the EV/EBIT ratios considering Kalmar's strong balance sheet in 2026 and 2027 are about 11x and 9x. The corresponding P/E ratios are about 15x and 13x. We consider these multiples moderate for a quality company, and they already fall below the midpoints of the levels we deem neutral for this year (EV/EBIT 11x-13x, P/E 14x-17x). Given the earnings growth we project, we find the risk-adjusted expected return on the share attractive. Our positive view is also supported by our DCF model (EUR ~49/share).