Kalmar Q1'25: Demand remained brisk at the start of the year

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/29/2026 at 11:30 pm EEST

Kalmar’s Q1 figures fell short of expectations, while order intake clearly exceeded expectations. According to the company, the market had shown signs of recovery earlier in the year, but with the recent increase in tensions, uncertainty is clearly growing. In connection with the report, the company made no changes to its guidance, which we believe indicates a relatively stable development. We only made slight adjustments to our estimates after the report and still consider the stock valuation to be moderate. Reflecting this, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and EUR 30 target price.

Q1 earnings below estimates, orders clearly above expectations

Kalmar's revenue decreased by 9% in Q1, and revenue fell short of both our and consensus expectations. Relative to our forecasts, the underperformance was due to the development of equipment revenue, reflecting the decline in the order book at the end of 2024 and the timing of deliveries. Kalmar's adjusted EBIT (48.0 MEUR) also fell short of expectations, in line with revenue development. In terms of services, however, the company reached record profitability in Q1 (adj. EBIT-% of services: 19.0%). The company recorded small non-recurring items in the reported result, while the cost burden of the lower lines was slightly smaller than we expected. However, when looking at the big picture, the reported EPS fell short of our forecast. Q1 orders showed positive momentum like in Q4'24, as Kalmar's Q1 order intake (480 MEUR, +20% y-o-y) clearly exceeded both our forecast and market estimates that expected 5-7% growth in orders. The increase in orders was driven by equipment orders (+31% y/y), while service orders were stable compared to the comparison period. According to the company, the positive development was quite broad-based across different product groups, and order growth was also double-digit in all market areas.

Only minor adjustments to forecasts

We found Kalmar's market comments for the beginning of the year positive, but the operating environment has naturally become much more uncertain since then due to the direct and indirect effects of rising trade policy tensions. The company did not yet draw conclusions about the possible effects of the situation, but commented that it had not observed significant changes in the overall market. However, it said it had sensed a certain increase in regional (USA) caution. Overall, however, it reiterated its guidance and expects its comparable EBIT margin to be over 12%. In our view, the guidance indicates expectations of relatively stable development for 2025, to which the equipment order book also brings visibility, despite increased uncertainty. Overall, we only made minor revisions to our near-term assumptions. Reflecting the order intake, we slightly raised our revenue forecasts for the coming years, which also flowed down to the earnings lines. Overall, however, the forecast changes remained limited, and for the time being, we continue to monitor the development of trade policy and the demand situation before making any major revisions. We predict that the adjusted EBIT% for this year will be 12.5% (was 12.2%) and the margin development for the coming years is slightly upward (2026e-2027e adj. EBIT% 12.8-13.1%) supported by revenue growth.

Valuation is still attractive

Based on our updated estimates, Kalmar's adjusted EV/EBIT figures for 2025 and 2026 are around 8x and 7x, while the P/E ratios are around 11x and 10x. We find the multiples fairly moderate in absolute terms, also considering the company's return on capital (cf. previous 12 months ROCE %: ~18%). At the same time, we feel the multiples are limited in the short term by the lack of earnings growth we expect this and next year compared to 2024, and the elevated forecast risks due to trade policy tensions. Correspondingly, in the longer term, we feel the company has good prospects for earnings growth through expected market growth and Kalmar's efficiency programs, which is also indicated by our DCF model (EUR ~32/share) that is clearly above the current share price.