Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/3/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Herantis Pharma released further information on the next clinical trial with the HER-096 drug candidate for Parkinson's disease. The Phase 2a study, aiming for preliminary efficacy data, is likely to start next year and will last approximately two years. The completion of the results will take longer than we previously estimated, so we are moving our estimate for the drug's launch to 2034 (previously 2033). The postponement of cash flows reduces the share's value in the DCF calculation, so we revise our target price to EUR 2.2 (from EUR 2.4). In our assessment, the risk/reward ratio remains unsatisfactory, so we lower our recommendation to Reduce (was Accumulate).

Phase 2 setup and timeline refined

The upcoming Phase 2a trial is a randomized, double-blind, multi-center study of approximately 100 patients, comparing HER-096 to placebo. The trial is divided into a six-month randomized period, followed by a six-month open-label period, during which all patients will receive HER-096. A digital, smartphone-based platform serves as a sensitivity-enhancing tool in demonstrating efficacy. Overall, the trial design is of high quality and will produce high-quality data. As a compromise, the relatively short duration limits observations of long-term changes.

Herantis aims to submit a clinical trial application by the end of 2026, obtain trial authorization, and initiate the first treatments in H1'27. Results would be available in roughly two years, i.e., H1'29, which is about a year later than our previous estimate.

Some of the funding is already in place

Herantis' current funding is sufficient until Q1'27. The financing toolbox includes potential partnering, equity financing, and grants, which the company has so far been very successful in securing. For example, Parkinson's UK and the Michael J. Fox Foundation have previously funded Phase 1b. Already secured funding for Herantis includes an 8.0 MEUR EU grant for the implementation of Phase 2a, and the remaining 10.8 MEUR from the EIC Fund's equity investment commitment. Our model includes a 12 MEUR share issue for this year, which, together with the EU grant and cash, we estimate would cover most of the financing needed to complete Phase 2a. In our view, the financing situation still contains binary risk: non-dilutive solutions (partnership or grants) support the share price, while a potential large share issue could put pressure on it.

We are pushing back our estimate for commercialization by one year

Based on the new information, the overall drug development program will take longer to complete than we previously estimated. We are moving our estimate for the launch of HER-096 in the US to 2034 and elsewhere in the world to 2035 (previously 2033/2034). We estimate the probability of the research program progressing to Phase 2 at 90%. We estimate that the study results fully support the continuation of the program, with uncertainty related to securing financing.

Share price increase and prolonged research program tip the scales

Our DCF model indicates a value of EUR 2.2 per share (previously EUR 2.4) and suggests that the stock is fully priced. The change is based on the shift of forecast cash flows further into the future, which decreases the present value of future cash flows. Long-term value creation is based on advancing research, increasing the likelihood of commercialization, and future cash flows. The investment has high return potential, but the risk of capital loss is also very high if research results disappoint. In an optimistic scenario, a lucrative partnership agreement or a tender offer could unlock value for investors already in the short term.