In connection with the publication of GreenMobility's H1 2026 interim report and the adjusted 2026 guidance, we have updated our investment case.

H1 2026 confirms that profitability is proven. Revenue grew 4% to DKK 77.2m, while EBITDA grew 19% to DKK 28.8m, lifting the margin to 37.3% from 32.5%, and net profit more than doubled with growth of 112% to DKK 12.5m. Cost discipline and operational streamlining are thus carrying earnings ahead of the topline. At the same time, the company lowered its 2026 revenue guidance to 5-9% growth (from 8-12%), while EBITDA growth guidance is maintained at 12-16%. With H1 EBITDA growth of 19%, the earnings guidance already looks well underpinned, while the revenue guidance requires the delayed vehicles, which have now arrived in Denmark, to be rolled into operation in H2 and the platform migration benefits to materialize.

The cash return part of the case is meanwhile underway. The fleet expansion of 185 vehicles (DKK 30m) is fully lease-financed with no upfront payment, and excess cash is already being returned through the first share buyback of up to DKK 6m. Free cash flow grew in H1 2026 to DKK 7.1m from DKK 4.5m.

Our investment case covers the key investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives.

The key investment reasons center on GreenMobility tapping into a growing market of car sharing and the much larger rental market with a superior business model, profitability and cash returns continuing to be proven with the H1 margin of 37.3%, doubled net profit and the launched share buyback, a 2026-2028 growth strategy that can be implemented within the existing capital structure, meaning excess cash over time can be redistributed to shareholders, and the optionality for growth after 2028 through early positioning in the self-driving car space, including an LOI signed for 2,000 robotaxis.

The key risks are led by increased competition in the Copenhagen taxi market, where new supply is expected to come online in the later part of 2026, potentially meaning a period with discounts. The demand impact is not yet fully quantifiable, but in the long run the business model without a driver is superior to taxi, and GreenMobility's dominant position in car sharing makes new entrants in that segment less likely. The 2026 guidance also carries execution risk in H2, as the delayed cars must now be rolled into operation and the platform benefits realized to reach the 5-9% revenue guidance, whereas the 12-16% EBITDA guidance already looks well underpinned. Finally, price fluctuations on EVs create a risk of losses on the fleet, mitigated by an aggressive depreciation profile and expansion into more models, and despite strong municipal support, political shifts on reserved parking spaces cannot be ruled out.

From a valuation perspective, based on the midpoint of 2026 guidance, GreenMobility trades at EV/Sales of 3.1x and EV/EBITDA of 8.2x versus peer medians of 2.0x and 9.6x respectively, a premium on sales multiples but a discount on earnings multiples. With an EBITDA margin more than twice as high as the peer group, one should expect a premium on sales multiples, despite growth being expected to be below peers. Looking at 2028 expectations based on the midpoint of the financial targets, the EV/EBITDA discount widens (6.3x vs. 7.5x), while the EV/Sales premium compresses. Newly listed Lime (IPO 1 July 2026) trades at a 2025 EV/EBITDA of 11.3x and EV/Sales of 2.7x and will be added to the peer group once consensus estimates become available.

P/E based on 2025 realized results (EPS DKK 5.91) is approximately 14x, or approximately 25x adjusted for the one-time effect from the deferred tax asset, and the 2025 realized free cash flow gives a cash flow yield of approximately 4% on the current market cap, with the H1 2026 development pointing to a higher yield in 2026.

For more details on the half-year results, you can watch our H1 2026 event with the company's management: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/greenmobility-presentation-of-the-h1-2026-interim-report

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment for a Digital IR subscription agreement. CEO of HC Andersen Capital, Tue Østergaard, owns shares and is the Chairman of the Board of GreenMobility. /Michael Friis Jørgensen, 13:00, 13/07-2026.