In connection with the publication of GomSpace's Q2 2026 Interim Report, we have updated our investment case, which covers investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives.

The company reported first-half revenue growth of 30% to SEK 239.4m and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11%, in the upper half of the 5-12% guidance range. Second-quarter revenue rose 17% to SEK 112.6m with an EBITDA margin of 13%. Free cash flow was SEK -102.6m for the first half, reflecting planned investments in inventory, development projects and capacity, while cash stood at SEK 183.9m at period-end

The 2026 guidance of SEK 540-640m in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5-12% was reiterated.

Order intake of SEK 257.6m in the first half was 18% below a strong comparison period, but it still exceeded revenue, giving a book-to-bill of 1.08 for the half and 1.25 in the second quarter. External backlog ended at SEK 414.9m, marginally above the SEK 409.8m carried into the year. Management attributes the lower year-on-year backlog to faster conversion, as scaling investments in Products have increased delivery capacity and cut execution lead times. In our view this is the right way to read it: the base business is replacing what it delivers, and backlog is becoming a weaker forward indicator for the Products layer specifically.

The headline of the updated investment case reflects where we think the case now stands. Momentum is delivered rather than promised, with two consecutive years of profitability and a first half that tracks inside guidance on both growth and margin. What is not yet delivered is the step-change. National & Defense Solutions, the unit built to capture sovereign demand, reported no external revenue and no external order intake in the first half and remains in an investment phase. Ordinary order intake sustains the current trajectory. Moving to a materially higher level depends on large sovereign contracts, and those are the proof point we and other investors will be watching for.

On the investor call, CEO Carsten Drachmann gave more detail on the sovereign pipeline than the report itself. Germany was singled out, with a government space-for-defence programme cited at EUR 35bn and recently expanded to EUR 42bn, where GomSpace is in active discussions with a large prime that approached the company after concluding it was more mature than most of the local market. This remains pipeline only, with no contracts.

The Ukraine joint venture with STETMAN was described as a sovereign constellation and operator model that could later sell services more broadly, with the first demonstrator satellite having completed vibration testing and targeting a rideshare launch in early October. Drachmann also flagged that political will and budgets across Europe are in place while procurement processes have not yet adapted, which is the practical reason these opportunities take time to convert.

On the Products side, the largest single KIT order to date shows the scale now available in that business, but management was explicit that such orders will make Products revenue lumpier between quarters.

The materially past-due receivable from one customer was reduced by around 22% to SEK 113.6m during the first half. The reduction came mainly from reallocating the underlying material to other programmes rather than from payment, as only SEK 2.3m was received in cash. No work, product or assets have been released to the customer, GomSpace retains physical control of the material, and from 1 August the company holds full ownership of 30,202 shares in the customer as further security. No write-down has been taken. We regard this as incrementally de-risked and do not rank it among the key risks in the case, although the value of the shares remains uncertain and is measured using unobservable inputs.

Our key investment reasons and risks are largely unchanged. The market position, the exposure to rising European defence spending and the sovereign shift, and the structural advantage of owning the high-margin Products layer in-house all remain intact, and the last of these is now more visible in the accounts, with Products revenue up 69% in the first half and supplied to Satellite Systems on arm's length terms.

On the risk side, frontloading of costs and investments creates volatility in earnings and margins between reporting periods, the balance sheet supports current priorities but additional external funding cannot be ruled out as the industry enters a scaling phase, and government and military contracts continue to carry long lead times. The one addition is the timing of the large sovereign contracts discussed above.

On valuation, GomSpace trades at 3.3x 2026E EV/Sales against a closest peer median of 4.5x, so the market now prices the top line at a discount to comparable peers. GomSpace is guided to grow around 34% in 2026 against a peer median of around 42%, but the peer figure is lifted by names growing from a lower base or recovering from a declining 2025. The picture is reversed on 2026E EV/EBITDA at 38.7x versus 17.4x, although only two of five peers report positive EBITDA, which limits comparability.

After a strong 2025 the share has eased during 2026 and EV/Sales on a trailing basis has returned to its three-year median, so the premium built during the sector rerating is largely unwound. From here the proof points are delivery against guidance and conversion of the sovereign pipeline into orders, alongside any renewed sector momentum.

For further insights into the Q2 2026 results and GomSpace's strategic direction, you can watch the event we hosted with CEO Carsten Drachmann: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gomspace-presentation-of-q2-2026-interim-report

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from GomSpace for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 08:00, 11/09-2026.