A strong Q4 close has prompted Gabriel to raise its full-year guidance for continuing operations to revenue of MDKK 537-539 and EBIT of MDKK 50-52. Q4 revenue grew by around 13%, ahead of management's own expectations and well above the low growth rates seen earlier in the year. The upgrade reverses the narrowing at Q3 and places EBIT in the upper half of the original range. We move our estimates to the midpoint, lifting 2025/26e EBIT by 12% to MDKK 51.1, while out-years rise around 1% on the larger base. We retain our target price of DKK 270 and our "Accumulate" recommendation ahead of the annual report on 25 November, which is expected to bring guidance for 2026/27 and financial targets for the continuing business.

Q4 growth well ahead of expectations

Gabriel realized Q4 revenue growth of around 13%, with progress across all parts of the continuing business. Management states that this exceeded its own estimates for the quarter. This is a clear step up from nine -month growth of 1.6% and comes despite management describing market conditions in Europe and Asia as unchanged negative at Q3. The preliminary figures imply Q4 revenue of around MDKK 142 against MDKK 126 a year earlier. The announcement does not break the growth down by region or driver, which we will look for in the annual report.

EBIT ends in the upper half of the original range

Gabriel entered the year guiding revenue of MDKK 510-550 and EBIT of MDKK 40-55, narrowed at Q3 to MDKK 528-532 and MDKK 44-46. The new EBIT range of MDKK 50-52 lies entirely above the narrowed range and above the original midpoint of MDKK 47.5. It implies Q4 EBIT of MDKK 15.4-17.4 at a margin of around 11.5%, against MDKK 12.4 a year earlier. At Q3, management indicated that revenue at the top of the range would be needed for a margin of around 10%. Reaching 9.5% on MDKK 538 suggests that the margin progress is not driven by volume alone.

Estimates raised to the midpoint of guidance

We raise 2025/26e revenue by 1% to MDKK 538 and EBIT by 12% to MDKK 51.1, corresponding to growth of 4.3% and an EBIT margin of 9.5%, against 8.5% in 2024/25. For 2026/27e and 2027/28e we lift revenue and EBIT by around 1%, reflecting the larger starting point rather than changed assumptions. We do not extrapolate the Q4 margin, as mix and volume in a single quarter can swing in either direction. Our dividend estimates are unchanged.

We retain our target price of DKK 270 and "Accumulate"

Our DCF model now points to a value of DKK 286 per share, up from DKK 278 at Q3 on the higher estimates. We retain our target price of DKK 270, held below the model value until the annual report brings the final transaction accounting, guidance for 2026/27 and possible financial targets for the continuing business. On our new estimates, the shares trade at 9.9x 2025/26e EV/EBIT and 8.3x for 2026/27e. At DKK 232, the expected return to our target price, together with a dividend yield of 3.0%, exceeds our 8.8% cost of capital. We therefore retain our “Accumulate” recommendation.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gabriel for a DigitalIR and research agreement. Rasmus Køjborg and Victor Skriver 08:00 09/10-2026.