Enento Q1'26: Strong development, especially outside Finland

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/29/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Enento's adjusted Q1 result slightly exceeded our estimate, but considering the one-off costs, the reported result was in line with our expectations. Although new risks have emerged due to the war in Iran, threatening the nascent improving demand outlook earlier in the year, the conditions for clear earnings growth this year should still be in place. Overall, we still find the valuation and risk/reward ratio interesting. We reiterate our target price of EUR 17.0 and Accumulate recommendation.

Sweden was bright spot in the Q1 report

Enento’s Q1 revenue grew by 5% to 39.6 MEUR, slightly exceeding our estimate (39.0 MEUR). Growth was supported by currencies, but comparable growth also picked up to 2.6%. While growth was moderate in Finland and Sweden (comparatively +2%), it was brisk in Norway and Denmark (+8%). Enento's adjusted EBIT was 10.6 MEUR in Q1 (Q1'26: 9.5 MEUR), surpassing our forecast (10.0 MEUR). The improvement in earnings was driven by a slight increase in revenue and an improved gross margin. By region (new segment reporting), earnings were stable in Finland (7.0 MEUR). In Sweden, earnings improved significantly to 4.0 MEUR (Q1'25: 3.0 MEUR), supported by last year's efficiency measures (personnel and material costs). Given the improvement in earnings and the stabilization of consumer credit volumes, the development in Sweden was one of the clear bright spots in the report. In Norway-Denmark, earnings also increased to 0.5 MEUR (Q1’25: 0.3 MEUR). We believe the group's smallest business can serve as a good growth driver for the company in the future.

Guidance reiterated

As expected, Enento reiterated its guidance, which states that the company expects revenue to grow by 0–5% in comparable currencies and adjusted EBITDA to increase from 2025. The year began with mid-range growth, and we believe the company can maintain this rate, even in an uncertain macroeconomic environment, especially since the situation in Sweden is showing signs of stabilization. Although regulatory risks in Sweden have not yet completely disappeared, we estimate that the most significant impacts are behind the company. The transformation of the SME business in Sweden continues to pose risks to revenue growth, but customer churn has been even slightly more moderate than the company had expected thus far. Overall, the macroeconomic situation remains uncertain, and the company does not see any major changes in customer behavior despite the continued decline in consumer confidence in Finland. The crisis in Iran has not affected demand, and there do not appear to have been any major impacts in April either. We increased our earnings estimates for the next few years by 4-8%, supported by Q1 developments and savings from the company's change negotiations (the final impact will be revealed in the Q2 report). These factors will affect profitability only in H2 of this year, and part of the impact will not be seen until next year. The change negotiations are extensive, and, together with the new organizational model, Enento's organization is currently undergoing a major revision. However, given Enento's business model, we do not expect this to significantly impact revenue growth, for example. We now expect revenue this year to grow by 4% to 159 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to be 57.5 MEUR

Business trends suggest staying on board

Although the latest news does not explicitly indicate a significant increase in demand, we believe that Enento has the necessary internal measures in place to achieve clear earnings growth this year. In light of the current positive business trend, we believe that the share's valuation is at a very moderate level, with adjusted EV/EBIT ratios for 2026-2027 at 10.5x-10x and corresponding adjusted P/E ratios at 12x-11x. We consider the risk/reward ratio to be attractive at the current valuation. Investors should note that a significant portion of the expected return consists of a dividend of nearly 7%.