Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/17/2026 at 8:15 am EEST.

Anora's Q2 earnings exceeded expectations, prompting us to increase our estimates. The guidance, which has been reiterated for the full year, now seems realistic, and the company is poised for a return to earnings growth. While we believe the dividend yield offers a positive expected return, we consider the valuation to be fair. We raise our target price to EUR 4.0 (was EUR 3.7) and reiterate our Reduce recommendation.

Q2 exceeded the comparison period and our estimate

Anora's revenue decreased by 3%, settling at 161 MEUR, which exceeded our estimate of 157 MEUR. As expected, revenue was weighed down by market decline and previously lost contracts. The Industrial segment, in particular, was responsible for exceeding our revenue expectations.

The company's adjusted EBITDA improved to 16.0 MEUR, whereas we had expected a result of 14 MEUR, consistent with the comparison period. the company managed to increase its profitability, achieving a significant gross margin improvement (46.7%), which was the main driver of the earnings beat. By segment, the earnings beat came clearly from the Industrial segment, which achieved an adj. EBITDA of over 6 MEUR, while we had expected a result of 3.5 MEUR. The beverage segments' earnings were in line with our estimates overall, though the Wine segment fell slightly short and was barely profitable, while Spirits exceeded our expectations due to revenue higher than we estimated. We consider the earnings beat to be weak in quality, as we do not believe the Industrial segment can sustainably achieve such strong results. On the other hand, the benefits of the company's efficiency program are reflected in the Industrial segment as well. The company recorded more one-off costs related to the efficiency program in Q2 than we expected, which weighed on the reported figures.

Guidance unchanged, forecasts up

Anora reiterated its guidance for this year, i.e. adjusted EBITDA in the range of 74-79 MEUR. The company is ahead of the comparison period by 3 MEUR for H1, so it will achieve the lower end of the guidance even if H2 earnings remain at the level of the comparison period. We note that the Industrial segment has significantly higher comparison figures for H2, so we cannot expect the same level of earnings improvement from there. Additionally, we anticipate upward pressure on raw material costs, though the company did not appear particularly concerned about this issue. Naturally, the ongoing negative market trend also poses a challenge as we approach the company’s most important sales season at the end of the year.

Following strong Q2 earnings, we increased our estimates and now expect an adj. EBITDA of 75 MEUR. Forecasts for the coming years, especially revenue forecasts, were raised by the Bacardi distribution agreement announced on earnings release day, which the company expects will impact revenue by 25-30 MEUR. However, the profitability of the distribution business is inherently low, in our estimation, reaching only a few percent at the EBIT level. Thus, we estimate the earnings impact could be in the ballpark of around MEUR 1, which is a small positive but not significant on the company's scale. Forecasts for the lower earnings lines were also supported by lower finance expenses resulting from the new financing agreement.

Valuation is neutral; dividend offers positive expected return

Anora's 2026 P/E 10x is at the level of our acceptable multiples. Anora's dividend yield offers an expected return almost equal to the required return. Conversely, we find the company's return on capital remaining weak, with negative market trends pressuring earnings in both the short and long term. In an environment of flat or decreasing volumes, the company must continuously improve its efficiency just to compensate for normal cost inflation. Therefore, after the earnings improvement in the coming years, we estimate earnings and cash flow to remain at the same levels in 2028-2034.