contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


saab-receives-ground-combat-orders-from-lithuania

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Saab is active in the defense and aerospace industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of defense and security systems. The company's products include fighter aircraft, radar and surveillance systems. The operations are global with a primary presence in Europe, North America and Asia. Saab was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Stockholm.

I’ve been wondering about that same thing for ages. On the other hand, the target price is what it is. It still stands out, though. Especially since it hit a new ATH today, over 600 SEK. (And look, the fossil-senior has learned to use AI )

As a new follower of Inderes, I have a couple of observations regarding Saab’s target price and the broader discussion on European defense structures. Target price 310 SEK – is this realistic? Saab’s share price has been well over 500 SEK for a long time, and the upward trend has continued. Other analysts’ target prices range between 500–690 SEK; Inderes’s 310 SEK stands out as exceptionally low. I understand the principles of conservative modeling, but at this point, the difference from the market price and other analysts’ views is so large that I would be interested in hearing more detail about why this specific level is still justified. Another perspective relates to how the conversation often turns toward the F-35 and other  U.S. systems. It is true that the F-35 is technically  strong and therefore a popular choice, but at the same time, Europe has drifted  into a situation where its air defense and key systems are very  much dependent on the United States. In the current global situation, this dependency  does not feel healthy. Instead, Europe should build its own  defensive backbone piece by piece to strengthen strategic autonomy.  This is not a Saab vs. F-35 confrontation, but a broader question  of how Europe ensures its own operational capability in the long run.  This is by no means an easy task, but recent events and  the sharp, threatening rhetoric from the U.S. toward its allies  should certainly wake up European leaders to serious reflection on the matter.

The market is doing its usual Dickens move: a real event happens, then narrative grows faster than fundamentals, until price and reality start pulling in opposite directions. Saab closed 2025 with a very strong Q4 order intake, with a estimate of roughly ~85 BSEK based on the publicly announced intake. That is not narrative, it is contracted demand that should translate into multi-year production load and cash generation, so a share price reaction is not irrational. Since closing on December 30, 2025, the shares are up ~11% from 537.6 SEK to 596.9 SEK (by Monday’s close), with the early move largely reflecting that year-end order momentum. Whether the new price level is fair is a separate question, because the market can be directionally right and still wrong on magnitude. Sentiment also got a macro boost. Over the weekend, the US seized Venezuela’s dictator Nicolás Maduro in a military operation in Caracas. The UN human rights office criticized the action as violating international law and warned about precedent, and China also condemned it. These events tend to shift defense optics from “nice to have” to “must have” for a few trading sessions, even when the direct earnings read through is close to zero. As we alluded to in an earlier post about pricing mechanics, events like this are very hard to price, so the odds are high that some of the move is mechanically mispriced, even if it reinforces the broader sector narrative. That narrative is also being fed by other live geopolitical stress points. US political rhetoric around Greenland has escalated again, prompting sharp pushback from European leaders. In the Middle East, the Gaza ceasefire is still leaking, and Reuters reports Israel expanded strikes into Lebanon on January 5. Add the Russo-Ukrainian war running that is still running hot, and you get a steady demand for defense sector exposure even when company specific fundamentals have not changed. We expect pricing in the sector to stay sentiment led and narrative heavy (i.e., irrational) rather than anchored in facts and numbers, for as long as the geopolitical temperature remains high.

Renato has written comments on Saab’s new French contract.  Saab announced on Tuesday, December 30, 2025, that it has signed a contract with the French Defense Procurement Agency (DGA) for two GlobalEye airborne early warning and control aircraft. The order value is approximately 12.3 BSEK, and deliveries are scheduled for 2029-32. The order strengthens Saab’s position in the European defense market, but due to the long delivery schedule, we do not expect it to have a significant impact on our forecasts for the coming years.                   Inderes              Saab: GlobalEyen läpimurto vahvistaa vientinäkymiä - Inderes    GlobalEye Ranskalle: ~12,3 BSEK, toimitukset 2029-32.

Very good points there. Let’s take at them for a spin. This is a good discussion! Political rhetoric is not, on its own, a threat vector that would rationally drive Canada to rearm against the United States. Ottawa and Washington can have a messy relationship, but a bilateral military conflict is not a viable planning assumption in any serious force design. Canada is arguably the strongest ally that the US has, both on this side of the Atlantic and on theirs. Canada can afford to diversify platforms, but the decision case would be sovereignty, industrial participation, cost, or procurement risk management, not a belief that the United States is “too threatening.” In that light, adding Gripen simply to run a two platform multirole fleet is not a strong argument. You would be choosing to pay the mixed fleet efficiency tax, meaning duplicate training and sustainment ecosystems and higher recurring manpower needs, while also introducing a platform that reportedly scored materially below the F-35 on Canada’s rated capability criteria in the 2021 evaluation.

Committing to a single aircraft type may be the cheapest option, but it is also the riskiest. A single aircraft type is also not the best option for all purposes; it is a compromise. Measured by GDP, Canada is the world’s tenth largest economy. Its population and GDP are, for example, 7–8 times larger than Finland’s. If Canada perceives the USA’s unfriendly and aggressive rhetoric as a threat, investing in an aircraft type that is (partially) independent of the USA could be well-justified. It costs more, but Canada can certainly afford it if they choose to.

Running two fighter platforms such as F-35 and Gripen is rarely something a nation can “simply choose,” even if the decision is political. The cost problem is structural because you are committing to two parallel ecosystems for training, simulators, maintenance specialities, spares, test equipment, documentation, security accreditation, and upgrade. That overhead does not scale down nicely. A Canadian mixed fleet analysis illustrates the penalty (source: https://thehub.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/06-05-Mixed-Fleet-En-final.pdf): a single fleet met anticipated commitments with 65 aircraft and 90 pilots, while a comparable mixed fleet required 82 aircraft and 112 pilots, or +26% aircraft and +24% pilots for similar output. For a small fleet nation, this fixed cost burden dominates. Finland is a clean example of “small” scale, with 61 Hornets listed in service on the Finnish Defence Forces technical specifications page. In a small fleet, splitting across two fighter types creates an efficiency tax, meaning you need more aircraft and more people to deliver the same number of ready jets because you are running two separate training and sustainment stacks. A mixed fleet can still be strategically rational for a large nation with enough scale to sustain both stacks, especially if there is a strategic need for deliberate role split. But for small nations, multi-platform fighter fleets are usually possible, but rarely optimal, and almost always more expensive over time. What I am saying here does not have much to do with whether the two platforms are complements or not, but for that to be an absolute truth, the economics would have to be sound. It is also possible that we are underestimating the political aspect and the country’s strategic needs here. Time will tell.

Saab

Saab has received orders from Lithuania for the AT4 weapon as well as ammunition for the Carl-Gustaf weapon with a combined order value of SEK 1.3 billion. Deliveries are planned 2027-2029.The...

<div class="abstract">Saab has received orders from Lithuania for the AT4 weapon as well as ammunition for the Carl-Gustaf weapon with a combined order value of SEK 1.3 billion. Deliveries are planned 2027-2029.</div>The orders are placed within a framework agreement initially signed between Saab and the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration, which enables Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to place orders for Saab's Carl-Gustaf M4 and ammunition as well as AT4 weapons.&nbsp;"We look forward to continuing to provide the Lithuanian forces with the reliable, highly effective capabilities of our support weapon AT4 and specialised ammunition for the Carl-Gustaf system. Our solutions give soldiers precision and ease-of-use, enabling them to carry out their missions safely and with confidence, says Görgen Johansson, head of Saab's business area Dynamics.Saab's 84mm ground combat weapons includes the disposable AT4 as well as the man-portable recoilless, multi-role weapon Carl-Gustaf. With their wide range of munition types, AT4 and Carl-Gustaf are able to handle multiple scenarios on the battlefield.ContactSaab Press Centre +46 (0)734 180 018 <a href="mailto:presscentre@saabgroup.com">presscentre@saabgroup.com&nbsp;</a>Saab is a leading defence and security company with an enduring mission, to help nations keep their people and society safe. Empowered by its 27,000 talented people, Saab constantly pushes the boundaries of technology to create a safer and more sustainable world. Saab designs, manufactures and maintains advanced systems in aeronautics, weapons, command and control, sensors and underwater systems. Saab is headquartered in Sweden. It has major operations all over the world and is part of the domestic defence capability of several nations.<div></div>