Taaleri Q2'26 preview: A big step was taken in recycling the balance sheet with Fintoil
Summary
- Taaleri's Q2 report is expected to show increased revenue of 14.8 MEUR, driven by continuing earnings and growth in Garantia's insurance premium income, despite a slight decrease in Private Equity Funds revenue.
- EBIT is projected to improve to 6.4 MEUR, largely due to Garantia's strong investment portfolio performance, while Renewable Energy contributes positively, and other Private Equity Funds remain unprofitable.
- The focus is on the Fintoil investment, SolarWind 4 fund preparations, and balance sheet capital recycling, with management's strategic progress and capital allocation comments being of particular interest.
- Taaleri aims to exit old investments quickly, with significant attention on the 30 MEUR Fintoil investment and recent progress in Ren-Gas as part of its strategy implementation.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/10/2026 at 08:41 am EEST
| Estimates | Q2'25 | Q2'26 | Q2'26e | Q2'26e | 2026e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Inderes |
| Revenue | 13.5 | 14.1 | 60.0 | ||
| EBIT | 4.5 | 5.7 | 23.7 | ||
| EPS (rep.) | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.54 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 6.6 % | 4.7 % | -5.8 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 33.4 % | 40.6 % | 39.5 % |
Source: Inderes
Taaleri will publish its Q2 report on Wednesday, August 12. The company's earnings webcast can be followed here at 11:00 am EEST. We have slightly raised our earnings estimates for the quarter due to the excellent performance of Garantia's investment portfolio, even though the quarter has been operationally uneventful. In the report, our attention is particularly drawn to the recently announced Fintoil arrangement, the preparations for fundraising for the new SolarWind 4 fund, and the recycling of balance sheet capital.
Garantia should keep growing
We expect Taaleri's Q2 revenue to have increased to 14.8 MEUR (Q2'25: 13.5 MEUR). Revenue mainly consists of continuing earnings, and we believe no significant one-off income occurred during the review period. Taaleri's revenue typically gives a rather poor picture of the operational development of the company, as investment income is recorded as part of revenue and causes significant volatility in the reported figures. In Private Equity Funds, we expect revenue to decrease slightly from the comparison period, when the company recorded significant retroactive fees. Although the market still does not provide much traction, we expect Garantia's insurance premium income to have continued to grow from the comparison period due to the company's own actions.
Earnings are largely dependent on Garantia
We expect Q2 EBIT to improve to 6.4 MEUR (H1'25: 4.5 MEUR) and EPS to be EUR 0.16. The earnings growth is largely driven by the strong performance of Garantia's investment portfolio. Operationally, we estimate Garantia will again deliver an excellent insurance technical result, driven by a strong combined ratio. In Private Equity Funds, Renewable Energy generates good earnings from recurring fees, but the EBIT of Other Private Equity Funds is expected to remain unprofitable due to the ramp-up phase of the business. We do not expect any significant surprises in group-level costs; they should remain in line with the company's current cost structure.
Focus on the Fintoil arrangement, SolarWind 4, and balance sheet recycling
Taaleri does not provide numerical earnings guidance at the group level, and we do not expect the company to change its segment-specific verbal outlooks in connection with the Q2 report. Taaleri has made rapid progress in its strategy since last autumn's CMD, and the company has achieved more since then than in the entire 2023-2025 strategy period combined. The most interesting aspects of the earnings release and earnings call will be management's comments on strategy progress and capital allocation. The 30 MEUR investment in Fintoil announced in July, together with HitecVision, was a significant step that makes the biorefinery clearly the Group's largest single investment. In addition, the company's recent investment in Ren-Gas has made significant progress in implementing its strategy, and comments and potential further investments in the company are of interest.
For the investor story and the unlocking of the share's significant undervaluation, the recycling of balance sheet capital remains key. Taaleri's balance sheet contains many old investments (the Texas wind project, Turku Toriparkki, and old wind funds) that the company intends to exit relatively quickly. Management's comments on these matters are naturally of interest. On the operational side, our focus is on the preparations for fundraising for Renewable Energy's next flagship product, the SolarWind 4 fund, the launch of which is critical for the segment's next growth leap.