Source: Inderes & Bloomberg  (consensus, 34 estimates)

Spotify will report its Q2 results on August 4, before the market opens. We expect the company to demonstrate robust top-line momentum, driven by steady user growth and accelerating ARPU, while profitability is anticipated to reflect the previously guided step-up in operating expenses. We expect the focus to center on the trajectory of the ad-supported business, early updates on the strategic initiatives unveiled at the recent Investor Day, and management's commentary regarding the expected moderation of OpEx in the second half of the year.

Strong user intake and ARPU development to drive top-line growth

We forecast Q2 revenue to grow by 14% to 4.78 BEUR (Q2'25: 4,19 BEUR), broadly in line with the company's guidance of 4.80 BEUR. We expect total MAUs to reach 778 million (12% y/y), matching guidance, while Premium subscribers are estimated to hit 299 million (+6m q/q, +8% y/y). We expect a key driver for the top line to be Premium ARPU, which we estimate to grow ~7.5% on an FX-neutral basis, supported by the flow-through of recent price increases and a significant moderation in currency headwinds, where we expect a ~80 bps headwind in Q2, down from ~600 bps in Q1. In the ad-supported segment, we expect revenue growth to remain somewhat muted (Q2'26e: +3% y/y) as engagement continues to outpace monetization, though we look for signs that the rebuilt programmatic ad stack is beginning to close this gap ahead of our expected acceleration in H2'26.

Gross margin expansion offset by a temporary step-up in OpEx

We estimate the gross margin to come in at 33.1% (Q2’25: 31.5%), in line with guidance and up ~160 bps y/y, driven by sustained Premium margin expansion, as Marketplace scaling and a favorable content-mix shift lower effective royalty costs while pricing-led ARPU growth outpaces music, podcast and audiobook costs. Profitability, however, will be constrained by a deliberate step-up in operating expenses. As communicated in the Q1 report, this elevated spend reflects higher compute costs for in-house AI model training, AI-assisted development tools, and marketing investments behind recently launched features. At the May Investor Day, management put a clearer scale on this phase, quantifying the combined OpEx step-up across Q2 and Q3 at ~200 MEUR, while explicitly flagging moderation into Q4'26 and 2027. Given management's guidance for moderation later in the year, we expect a meaningful share of this spend to land in Q2. Turning to the EBIT line, we expect a cost benefit from lower social charges driven by the share price development during Q2 (-5%). Overall, we expect EBIT to land at 639 MEUR (Q2'25: 406 MEUR), corresponding to a 13.4% margin (10%).

Focus on Q3 guidance, OpEx normalization, and Investor Day initiatives

Looking ahead, we believe the primary focus will be on the Q3 guidance and whether it confirms the expected moderation in operating expenses, as well as the expected acceleration in the ads business. Additionally, following the comprehensive 2030 roadmap presented at the May Investor Day, we will be attentive to any early progress on the newly announced power-law add-on architecture, including the UMG-enabled AI music creation tool and the Live Nation superfan ticketing partnership. We believe the former could be set for launch during H2'26, while the latter was launched in the US in mid-June. Finally, we look for management's confidence that the advertising business will re-accelerate in the second half of the year. On the Q3 guidance specifically, we expect revenue of 4.95 BEUR (+16% y/y), +17m MAU additions to 795 million (incl. +7m premium subs to 306m), a gross margin of 33.3%, and EBIT of 694 MEUR (14.0% margin). We will continue to focus on potential comments supporting our pricing power thesis following the US price hikes and the current price gap relative to competitors, but also on subscriber momentum and the trajectory of the advertising business.