Spinnova H1'25 preview: Focus on new strategy and status of Suzano negotiations

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/26/2025 at 8:01 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Spinnova will publish its H1 report on Thursday at 8:30 am EEST. In early summer, the company updated its strategy and announced significant write-downs, as well as its plans to unwind its partnership with Suzano (comment available here). In the H1 report, we will pay particular attention to the comments regarding the new strategy, and we are also interested in the timeline for securing the letters of intent agreed upon with Suzano. According to our estimates, Spinnova will have at least a year of work before reaching the commercial phase of technology deliveries, even under the best-case scenario. In addition to the agreements with Suzano, key issues for the company in the near future include improving the cost-effectiveness of the fiber as well as finding and securing parties interested in investing in the technology.

Focus on comments addressing termination of partnership with Suzano and progress in implementing strategy

As announced in early summer, Spinnova and Suzano were supposed to finalize the agreements on dissolving their cooperation in August. According to the letters of intent from the summer, Spinnova would receive strategically important assets from Suzano at a nominal price, and in addition, Suzano would finance Woodspin, which is being transferred to Spinnova, with an additional 5 MEUR. Spinnova has not yet announced the signing of binding agreements. Therefore, the status of the contract negotiations is one of the most interesting aspects of the report if the agreements are not finalized before earnings day. We believe it is crucial for Spinnova to finalize the agreements, as any delay or, worse yet, failure to do so would set back the implementation of the new strategy significantly.   

Furthermore, in the earnings release, we will pay particular attention to comments on the company’s new strategy and its progress. It is doubtful that there have been rapid breakthroughs in improving the cost-efficiency of Spinnova fiber, as the company has likely focused on dissolving the Suzano collaboration and identifying new partners during the summer. The summer strategy update left significant questions unanswered about the duration of the ongoing technical development phase, the partner strategy, the planned business model, and the company's financial targets. While the company will likely not be able to provide definitive concrete answers in connection with its H1 report, even small bits of information could be helpful given the uncertainty of the situation.

We are also interested in any further information and concrete next steps for the further development of Respin with ECCO. However, in our view, Respin appears to be of secondary importance to the stock because it is still at an earlier stage and has less potential than wood pulp material.

The numbers are ugly

Spinnova did not have any ongoing technology delivery projects in H1 or the comparison period, so revenue has been minimal. Although the company's costs should decrease due to last year's change negotiations and shifts in the pace of technological development, this spring's change negotiations and cost-cutting measures have probably not yet had a significant impact on reducing costs. In addition, Spinnova has written down its Woodspin investment (19.4 MEUR at the end of 2024) in H1 in connection with the Suzano agreements currently under negotiation. Therefore, we expect Spinnova's operating loss for H1 to be approximately 29 MEUR, though a large part of this is write-downs with no cash impact.

We estimate that Spinnova's net cash position has declined to approximately 32-33 MEUR from approximately 41 MEUR at the end of last year due to negative operating cash flow and certain investments (incl. Woodspin investments). As a result, while the company's cash position remains reasonable, on the other hand, the time needed to transition to the commercial phase remains largely unresolved. Consequently, the need for additional financing in the medium term can no longer be ruled out.

Spinnova has not provided guidance for the current year. We do not believe that the company will provide guidance in connection with the H1 report either.