Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/20/2026 at 9:13 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Scanfil will publish its Q1 report on Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 8:00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue to have grown significantly, driven by the MB acquisition, which was completed in January, and the ADCO acquisition in December. Additionally, we estimate that project wins in recent years will turn organic growth positive. We also project a significant increase in the operating result from the comparison period due to acquisitions and volume growth, despite the fact that the beginning of the year may still have involved integration efforts. We estimate that Scanfil will reiterate its guidance for the current year, though increased inflation and macro risks due to the war in Iran may also negatively impact Scanfil's investment-driven demand to some extent over the course of the year relative to previous expectations. In our view, Scanfil is neutrally priced (2026e: EV/EBIT 12x) ahead of the Q1 report.

Revenue has surged, driven by acquisitions

We forecast Scanfil's revenue to have grown by 26% in Q1 from the comparison period to 242 MEUR. The clear main driver of growth is inorganic, as the MB acquisition, completed in early January, and the consolidation of ADCO into Scanfil at the end of December 2025, will contribute significantly to top-line growth. Acquisitions have driven growth in Central Europe and the Americas, while growth in Northern Europe and APAC has been purely organic. We estimate that organic growth has settled at around 5%, as the ramp-up of new projects won in recent years should support delivery volumes in Q1.

We expect the Defense and Aerospace segment, which is being reported separately for the first time, to have accounted for approximately 10% of revenue and to have been the fastest-growing segment. This has likely compensated for continued sluggish demand in the European industry as a whole. We also expect the Cleantech & Energy segment to have maintained its positive trajectory, while we forecast that the Medtech & Life Science segment has rebounded to moderate positive organic growth following a slight slowdown toward the end of the year. However, the significant role of inorganic growth can make conclusions drawn from customer segments difficult to interpret.

We expect operating result to improve in line with increased volumes

We expect Scanfil's adjusted EBIT in Q1 to be 16.9 MEUR, which would represent a significant improvement over the 12.6 MEUR from the comparison period. We estimate that market expectations are generally consistent with our forecasts. In our view, earnings growth has primarily been driven by contributions from acquisitions and organic revenue growth. We forecast that Scanfil's adjusted EBITA margin has stabilized at 7.0%, which would be slightly better than the comparison period, when project ramp-ups weighed down results. We attribute the improved profitability to higher capacity utilization rates and the fact that MB and ADCO are more profitable than Scanfil. On the other hand, the integration phase of acquisitions and the ongoing ramp-up of new projects may still have limited the upside potential for margins.

In terms of the bottom line, we expect PPA amortizations and financial expenses to have increased slightly due to the accounting treatment of acquisitions (PPA) and the debt raised to finance them, although the company's balance sheet has remained in relatively good shape. We estimate Scanfil's reported earnings per share (EPS) to have been EUR 0.17 in Q1. We estimate that the report will not be particularly strong in terms of cash flow, as contract manufacturing typically ties up working capital in the early part of the year.

Reiterating the guidance is the base scenario

Scanfil reiterated the guidance it issued back in January with the Q4 report, according to which the revenue for the year will be 940-1060 MEUR and the adjusted EBITA 64-78 MEUR. We expect the company to reiterate this guidance in connection with the Q1 report. Our full-year estimates (revenue 993 MEUR and adjusted EBITA 74 MEUR) are quite close to the midpoints of the guidance ranges.

Inflation and economic growth risks caused by the war in Iran may affect Scanfil's demand, but the strong momentum in the defense sector and previous project wins are likely to buffer the company. If the company can demonstrate accelerating organic growth and continued good profitability from acquisitions, this will support positive earnings growth for the rest of the year. The greatest risks to our forecasts continue to stem from general global economic uncertainty and its impact on customers’ willingness to invest. In the report, we will also focus on the progress of the MB and ADCO integrations.