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Analyst Comment

Remedy’s Alan Wake 2 will be released on October 17

By Atte RiikolaAnalyst
Remedy Entertainment

Translation: Original comment published in Finnish on 5/25/2023 at 8:42 am.

Remedy and Epic Games announced a brand new trailer for Alan Wake 2 at Wednesday's Playstation Showcase event and that the game will be released on Tuesday October 17, 2023. More information about the game can be found in Remedy's press release and on Alan Wake’s website, where the game is also available for pre-order. Based on a quick review, initial reactions to the trailer from players on social media seem largely positive.

Release date very close to our projections

In our projections, we had scheduled the release at the end of September, so the official release date is now very much in line with this. Based on our current assumptions, the game would have to sell roughly 2 million copies before recouping the production and marketing budget funded by Epic. After that, the companies split the net proceeds of the game in half. For now, we expect the game to start generating royalties for Remedy from Q2'24, but the actual outcome could be affected by many variables, both good and bad. We have discussed our assumptions in more detail in our latest Q1 update.

Alan Wake 2 will be a digital-only game

An interesting observation about the release news is that Alan Wake 2 will only be released as a digital version. This allows the initial selling price of the game to be kept a notch lower than many other games developed for the new generation of consoles, as the cost of producing and distributing physical copies of the game is eliminated. On the Epic Store, for example, the price of the standard version of the game appears to be roughly 50 euros. On the PlayStation Store, the prices for the standard version and the deluxe version, which includes future expansions, are roughly 60 euros and 80 euros, respectively.

The lack of physical copies is likely to cause annoyance among some game enthusiasts who collect game boxes. In the big picture, the importance of physical copies for game sales has declined dramatically over the last 5 years. Given this trend and the cost savings to be made, the decision is very understandable.

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures26.04.2023

202223e24e
Revenue43.636.362.1
growth-%-2.5 %-16.7 %71.0 %
EBIT (adj.)-0.6-11.86.8
EBIT-% (adj.)-1.3 %-32.4 %11.0 %
EPS (adj.)-0.13-0.880.40
Dividend0.100.100.17
Dividend %0.5 %0.6 %1.1 %
P/E (adj.)neg.neg.40.3
EV/EBITDA126.5neg.12.8

Forum discussions

Well, I was thinking about that RPG element. The things you mentioned were already done in the first Control. I don’t remember if all of them...
5 hours ago
by Relaaja
2
Related to this, from Kasurinen’s interview Despite the developer’s relative inexperience with melee combat games, Kasurinen says they are confident...
7 hours ago
by Akee
8
I understood the genre to be action RPG, meaning not necessarily conversations but something like Diablo or Dark Souls style? So, you collect...
7 hours ago
by amoult
2
Most likely, Q4 will have a very empty release calendar, at least for November-December, due to GTA and CoD. October will probably also be quiet...
7 hours ago
by Relaaja
3
Whatever Remedy decides to do, the launch must not be anywhere near the GTAVI release. I wouldn’t release anything in the summer, but would ...
9 hours ago
by Seinäkadun Keisari
2
I dreamt that Control Resonant will be released in December, only after the release of GTA VI, and most of the cash flows would therefore only...
10 hours ago
by Pohjolan Eka
11
The release of Control Resonant towards the end of Q2 will, in my own estimation, be quite challenging to achieve. Of course, the start of marketing...
14 hours ago
by Henkka
5
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