Remedy Q4'25 preview: A pivotal year ahead

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/3/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Source: Inderes

Remedy Entertainment will publish its Q4 report on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, and the company's earnings release can be viewed here at 12.00 pm EET. We expect Remedy's Q4 revenue to have grown year-on-year, supported by Alan Wake 2 royalties and stable development fees. In the report, we will mainly focus on the company's outlook for 2026, which is shaping up to be an exceptionally significant year for the investment case with the release of Control Resonant. Naturally, we will also pay attention to comments about the progress of other game projects.

We forecast revenue to have grown significantly year-on-year

We forecast Remedy's Q4 revenue to be 16.2 MEUR, an increase of approximately 39% year-on-year. We anticipate that development fees (Q4'25: 9.3 MEUR) will have decreased slightly from the comparison period (10.2 MEUR), with fees generated from Max Payne Remake and Control Resonant. We estimate that the revenue growth came particularly from royalties (4.7 MEUR vs. 1.5 MEUR). This stems from Alan Wake 2, which became available on PlayStation Plus in October. In addition, we have assumed 2 MEUR in B2B payments from Sony and Microsoft for FBC: Firebreak, though we do not expect significant revenue from sales of the game. Overall, visibility into Remedy's revenue development is limited due to uncertainty surrounding each revenue item.

We expect revenue growth to be reflected in improved EBITDA

We estimate that Remedy's Q4 EBITDA totaled 3.2 MEUR (Q4'24: -0.6 MEUR). In our estimate, increased depreciation relative to the comparison period weighs on EBIT, bringing it close to zero. We forecast full-year 2025 EBIT to be -15.5 MEUR, reflecting the 14.9 MEUR write-down of FBC: Firebreak development costs in Q3. During 2025, the growth of Remedy's cost structure has calmed down, thanks to the ramp-up of the multi-project model. Thus, revenue growth should be more strongly reflected in the earnings lines going forward. Due to Remedy's stage of development, we expect the company to keep its dividend payments on hold.

2026 will be a critical year for Remedy's investment story

At the heart of the report is Remedy's outlook, as the company is set to release Control Resonant this year. Control Resonant is a critical game for Remedy's investment story, and its success as a self-published title will largely determine the company's cash flow and ability to finance future projects independently in the coming years. At this point, there is still significant uncertainty regarding the forecasts for the coming years, both in terms of the exact release date of Control Resonant and the game's sales volumes.

While we also estimate that Remedy may still be exercising caution in its guidance, the outlook should at least reflect growth (or clear growth) in revenue and EBITDA. We assume the game will be released in late Q2'26, although we also consider a Q3 release to be very possible. We forecast Control Resonant to sell roughly 1.8 million copies in 2026 and about 2.2 million copies in 2027. As a result, we estimate Remedy's revenue to exceed 120 MEUR in 2026-2027, with EBITDA reaching ~20-26 MEUR. The starting points for strong game sales are good, as the original Control has sold over 5 million copies, and over 20 million players have played the game across various platforms. In addition to Control Resonant, we will monitor comments on the progress of Max Payne Remake, which we expect to be released in late 2026 or early 2027.