Remedy Q1'26 preview: Waiting for the release of Control Resonant

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/29/2026 at 7:40 am EEST.

Remedy will publish its Q1 report on Tuesday, May 5, at 9.00 am EEST. We expect Remedy's Q1 revenue to have decreased from the comparison period and earnings to have been clearly in the red, as the quarter falls into a quiet phase before the year's most critical event, the release of Control Resonant. Thus, in the report, our main focus will be on comments regarding the upcoming game release and the initial impressions of the new CEO, Jean-Charles Gaudechon, who started in March. Any additional information on other game projects is always of interest.

We expect revenue to have decreased in a quiet quarter

We forecast Remedy's Q1 revenue to be 9.5 MEUR, which would represent a decrease of ~29% year-on-year. The decline is due to lower development fees (Q1'26e: 6.0 MEUR) compared to the comparison period, which are currently mainly recognized from Max Payne Remake and Control Resonant. We also expect royalty revenues (Q1'26e: 2.0 MEUR) to have decreased from the comparison period, as Alan Wake 2 sales have already entered a more stable phase. We estimate that own-game sales (Q1'26e: 1.5 MEUR) consist of the original Control and the scheduled B2B payments for FBC: Firebreak (~1 MEUR) from Sony and Microsoft.

Publication preparations and low revenue are weighing on earnings

We forecast Q1 EBITDA to be -4.0 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to be -5.2 MEUR. The negative result is explained by the quarter's low revenue, which is insufficient to cover the company's largely fixed cost structure. Additionally, we estimate that marketing efforts initiated for Control Resonant have increased the cost level in the early part of the year. With self-publishing, Control Resonant sales will immediately be reflected in Remedy's figures, so the earnings trend should turn clearly positive towards the end of the year.

The release of Control Resonant is already on the horizon

For this year, Remedy guides for revenue (2025: 59.5 MEUR) and EBITDA (2025: 11.3 MEUR) growth. The wording of the guidance remains cautious, as, according to our calculations, both revenue and EBITDA should grow significantly with the successful release of Control Resonant. Understandably, the company wants to be cautious at this stage, as uncertainty before the game's release is naturally high, even though we believe the preliminary signs for the game look promising. We are currently expecting the game to be released at the end of Q2, but we also consider a Q3 release to be possible. We forecast Control Resonant to sell roughly 1.8 million copies in 2026 and about 2.2 million copies in 2027. As a result, we estimate Remedy's revenue to exceed 120 MEUR in 2026-2027, with EBITDA reaching ~19-26 MEUR. The starting points for strong game sales are good, as the original Control has sold over 5 million copies, and over 20 million players have played the game across various platforms.