Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/10/2026 at 7:31 am EET.

Relais will publish its Q4 results next Friday at around 9:00 am EET. We expect the company's revenue and earnings to have continued their strong growth, driven particularly by completed acquisitions. In connection with the results, we expect the company to publish an updated strategy and financial targets. Thus, the main focus on the earnings day will be on the company's longer-term guidelines, even though we do not expect any fundamental changes to the company's strategy compared to before.

Inorganic growth on both fronts

We estimate that Relais' Q4'25 revenue grew 33% year-on-year to 120 MEUR. The growth is largely inorganic, driven by acquisitions. However, we expect the Technical Wholesale and Products business to have also grown slightly organically (+3%), reflecting, among other things, a relatively brisk lighting market at the end of the year. Nevertheless, the Matro Group, TVH, and Autodelar acquisitions account for a clearly larger portion of our overall 17% growth forecast. We expect the development of the Commercial Vehicle Repair and Maintenance business to have been organically sluggish, similar to previous quarters. However, despite a 1% organic revenue decline, we forecast its growth at 66%, reflecting the significant TVH and TVS acquisitions.

Earnings growth is also robust in our forecasts

We expect Relais's Q4 EBITA to have grown significantly from the comparison period, reaching 14.1 MEUR, driven by revenue growth. This corresponds to an EBITA margin of 11.7%, which is better than in the comparison period, reflecting the organic growth of the product business and the economies of scale brought by the larger size. Based on normal net financing expenses and tax rates, we forecast adjusted earnings per share to have risen to EUR 0.46. With earnings growth, we expect Relais to continue its series of dividend increases and pay a dividend of EUR 0.52 for 2025.

Eyes on strategy update and new targets

Relais' previous strategy period ended in 2025, which also marked the company's financial target of 50 MEUR (pro forma) comparable EBITA. Thus, we expect the company to publish an updated strategy and financial targets in connection with the release of its Q4 results. In our view, Relais has demonstrated its ability to create value through successful capital allocation for growth in the vehicle aftermarket. We expect the company to continue implementing this kind of strategy in the Nordic countries, where we believe it still has good growth prospects, particularly through add-on acquisitions that complement its existing business operations. Therefore, we do not expect any fundamental changes to the company's strategy, and the new targets will primarily serve as a benchmark for the ambition level of the next strategy period. We believe the company will expand its financial targets from the previous absolute earnings level to include targets measuring return on capital, and we consider a clearly double-digit return on capital level (e.g. ROIC-% > 15%) to be justified.