Source: Inderes & Bloomberg, 3 analysts (consensus)

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/4/2026 at 6:45 am EET.

Orthex will publish its Q4 results on Thursday, March 5, 2026, at 9:00 am EET. The company's earnings webcast can be followed here at 11:00 am EET. We expect the company's revenue to have turned into slight growth at the end of the year, driven by export markets. We also expect the result to have improved from the comparison period, supported by lower raw material costs and favorable exchange rate developments. True to form, we do not expect Orthex to provide guidance for the current year. We will review the company's report in our earnings live (in Finnish) starting at 8:55 am.

We expect revenue to have returned to a moderate growth trajectory

We estimate Orthex's Q4 revenue to have grown 1.8% to 24.3 MEUR. We expect growth to come primarily from European export markets, where the company aims for strong double-digit growth in line with its strategy. However, we expect that increased customer credit risk and resulting delivery restrictions have hampered the company's development in export markets, similar to earlier in the year. Outside Europe, the company has one larger customer. Due to the weak financial position of that customer and US import tariffs, we expect the already low non-European sales to have contracted further during the quarter. In the Nordics, the market situation has remained challenging, but we have observed signs of demand recovery in key retail channels during the review period. The strengthened SEK provides a slight tailwind for revenue development during the review period, as a significant portion of invoiced sales in the Nordics comes from Sweden.

Decreased raw material prices support profitability

We expect Orthex's adjusted EBIT to have risen to 2.9 MEUR in Q4 from 2.7 MEUR in the comparison period. The key drivers for the improvement in profitability are revenue growth and a decrease in raw material prices. However, we expect the company's promotional activities to have limited the impact of lower raw material prices on the gross margin. A significant portion of Orthex's operating expenses are SEK-denominated, which reduces the impact of a strengthened SEK on the company's earnings.

In connection with the report, the company's Board of Directors will also issue its dividend proposal for 2025. We estimate Orthex will distribute a dividend of EUR 0.24 per share, which would correspond to a payout ratio of approximately 65%. The company's balance sheet has remained strong, which, in addition to enabling good profit distribution, also provides financial flexibility for potential M&A or capacity expansion investments in Europe.

In the management's comments, our attention is particularly drawn to the traction in export markets

Orthex does not typically provide short-term numerical guidance, so our attention will be on the company's comments regarding the demand outlook for export markets and the recovery of the Nordic market. Last year, the company fell short of its financial targets of 5% revenue growth and an 18% EBITA margin. This year, we expect revenue development to be in line with the growth target, but our relative profitability forecast is still far from the targeted EBITA margin. The company's management has mentioned ongoing strategy work, in connection with which we consider an update to the financial targets possible. In our view, it would be justified to update the growth target to be more ambitious at the expense of profitability and dividend targets.