Nurminen Logistics Q1’26 preview: Earnings likely to clearly decrease from a strong comparison period

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/20/2026 at 08:59 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Nurminen Logistics publishes its Q1 report on Thursday, April 23, 2026. We expect the company’s revenue and earnings to have decreased clearly from the strong comparison period. In the report, we are particularly interested in the company's more detailed market commentary and the ramp-up rate of the new international block train. 

We expect revenue to decrease significantly from a strong comparison period

We expect Nurminen's Q1 revenue to have decreased by around 25% year-on-year to 24.2 MEUR. We estimate that the decrease is mainly due to the Baltic business and North Rail, whose delivery volumes were very strong in the comparison period. In the comparison period, Baltic revenue was still at 11.1 MEUR, but since then, the volumes of the business have clearly decreased as the geopolitical situation has affected raw material flows. As a result, we expect Baltic revenue to have almost halved and to have been at approximately the same level as in previous quarters (6.3 MEUR) in Q1. We also estimate that North Rail's volumes were under pressure in Q1 due to the ice conditions in the Baltic Sea, which hampered vessel traffic at least around the time of the company's Q4 earnings release. In other respects, we expect a fairly stable development for the Railway business, although these are difficult to assess based on the company's reporting. We do not expect the new block train connection between Italy and Sweden, launched at the end of February, to be significantly visible in Q1 figures, reflecting the ramp-up phase of the route.

We expect earnings to fall with the volumes

We expect Nurminen's adjusted EBIT to have fallen to 3.5 MEUR from 6.5 MEUR in the comparison period. Our estimated adjusted EBITA margin is 14.6%, which is still at a good level, but significantly lower than the comparison period (20.0%). Earnings and the margin are weighed down especially by decreased volumes in North Rail and the Baltic business, as these have traditionally been the Group's strongest earnings drivers. Correspondingly, on the lower lines, we expect financial expenses and taxes to have been around normal levels. We expect the earnings attributable to Nurminen's shareholders to have been depressed by the minority interests in the Baltics and North Rail (Q1’26e: 0.7 MEUR). Reflecting this overall picture, we expect reported EPS to land at EUR 0.01.

We expect the company to reiterate its guidance for the half-year, with market commentary being of interest

Nurminen has guided the revenue for the first half of 2026 (H1’25: 60.3 MEUR) and comparable EBIT (H1’25: 10.8 MEUR) will fall below the comparison period. This is due to uncertainty regarding the timing of the Baltic business recovery. In addition, the company has estimated that the impact of investments made to grow its Central European business will only be visible from Q2 onwards. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance in connection with the report, as it has stated that it will revise its guidance for the fiscal year in connection with the Q2 report.

However, in connection with the outlook issued in the Q4'25 report, Nurminen estimates that the development of the logistics market relevant to it will strengthen during 2026, driven particularly by new routes and customers in Central Europe. It claims this would enable positive business development in 2026. In addition, the company estimates that the recovery in the economy and consumer demand, especially in Sweden, as estimated by various forecasting institutions, will support the demand for the company's services. In our view, the risk levels concerning European economic development and strengthening consumer confidence have been on the rise again due to the situation in the Middle East. We are therefore very interested in the company's more detailed comments on the development of the market situation for the various businesses (incl. the reception of the block train connection between Italy and Sweden and the ramp-up of the route). Before the report, we expect the company's revenue to reach 107 MEUR (2025: 109 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT 7.1 MEUR (2025: 18.3 MEUR) this year. In our current estimates, we expect the company to return to a growth trajectory in H2 as comparison figures ease and international investments are more strongly reflected in the numbers. As usual, we also monitor comments on the M&A market, as Nurminen's financial position would theoretically enable inorganic moves supporting international growth in the short term.