Analyst Comment
Nightingale's profit warning: Project delay shifts revenue to next year
Summary
- Nightingale Health issued a profit warning, indicating it will not meet its over 50% revenue growth target for the current fiscal year due to a project delay, shifting approximately 2.0 MEUR of revenue to the next fiscal year.
- The company now anticipates a 20% (+/- 5%) revenue growth for the current fiscal year, attributing the shortfall to a 2.4 MEUR project delay beyond its control.
- Nightingale's preliminary outlook for the next fiscal year expects revenue to exceed 10 MEUR, aligning with the analyst's estimates, as the revenue shift is seen as a timing issue rather than a strategic setback.
- The analyst maintains that the delay does not alter their view of Nightingale's long-term potential, emphasizing the importance of scaling high-volume partnerships for value creation.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 06/09/2026 at 07:35 am EEST
Nightingale Health announced a profit warning on Monday evening, stating that the company will fall short of its revenue growth target of over 50% for the current fiscal year due to the postponement of a significant project. Considering the project's postponement, our estimates are well in line with the guidance for both the current fiscal year and the company's guidance for the next fiscal year. The impact of the news on our estimates and stance remains very limited. We will update our estimates based on the new information in the near future.
The delay shifts revenue, but does not change the big picture
The company now expects current fiscal year revenue to grow by around 20% (+/- 5%) year-on-year, while the previous target was over 50% growth. According to the company, the reason for not meeting the target is that the 2.4 MEUR project announced in September 2025 is delayed due to reasons beyond the company's control. According to Nightingale, the project will be fully implemented, but approximately 2.0 MEUR of the associated revenue will be transferred to the next fiscal year. According to the company, growth for the current financial year would have been around 65% if the project had progressed according to the original schedule (Inderes +68.5%). This reinforces our view that Nightingale's core business has progressed in line with our expectations despite the delay of a single project.
Our estimates are in line with the new target
In connection with the profit warning, Nightingale also provided a preliminary outlook for the next fiscal year (2026–2027), during which it expects its revenue to exceed 10 MEUR. Considering that approximately 2.0 MEUR of revenue will be transferred from the current financial year to the next, our estimates are already well in line with the new guidance. As this is purely a delay in project revenue recognition, the news does not change our view of the company's long-term potential or strategic progress. As we have previously emphasized, the long-term scaling of high-volume partnerships is essential for the company's value creation. In our opinion, the announced delay of a single project does not have a significant impact on this.
Nightingale Health operates in the medical technology sector. The company specializes in the development of medical technology products. The product portfolio is broad and includes platforms and services within blood analysis that are used for disease prevention purposes. In addition to the main business, service and related ancillary services are also offered. The business is operated globally with the largest presence in Europe.
Read more on company pageKey Estimate Figures03.06
| 2025 | 26e | 27e | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7 | 7.9 | 8.0 |
| growth-% | 7.7 % | 68.5 % | 0.5 % |
| EBIT (adj.) | -19.4 | -16.5 | -15.0 |
| EBIT-% (adj.) | -413.7 % | -208.6 % | -188.4 % |
| EPS (adj.) | -0.30 | -0.27 | -0.23 |
| Dividend | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dividend % | |||
| P/E (adj.) | neg. | neg. | neg. |
| EV/EBITDA | neg. | neg. | neg. |
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