Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/11/2026 at 07:47 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Nexstim will publish its H1 report on Friday, August 14. We expect H1 revenue and earnings to have decreased from the comparison period due to continued revenue headwinds. The majority of the business consists of system sales, which we expect to have been on par with the comparison period, even though the visibility of the number of systems delivered is low. In the report, our attention is particularly drawn to the progress of strategic partnerships and the outlook for the rest of the year, supported by the large orders announced during the summer.

Stable system sales - recurring revenue under pressure

We expect Nexstim's H1 revenue to have fallen to 4.2 MEUR (H1'25: 4.5 MEUR). Our estimate is based on continued revenue pressure, which saw a dip in the H2'25 report. The decrease was explained by a reduction in the number of equipment leasing agreements and the discontinuation of sales of disposable head trackers. We expect recurring revenue to recover, but this will happen gradually, and H1 was likely still soft in this regard. Based on the press releases from the beginning of the year, system sales appear to have proceeded roughly at the pace of the comparison period, so we expect them to have remained at the level of the comparison period. The number of systems delivered will only be known in more detail in the report, and surprises in either direction can be expected.

Nexstim's system sales typically show clear seasonality, with sales weighted towards the second half of the year in line with hospital budget cycles. Although the beginning of the year has likely been relatively quiet, the company's news flow during the summer has been positive. In June and July, Nexstim announced two separate orders, each for ten NBS 6 systems, likely from its strategic partner Brainlab. Most of these deliveries will take place in the second half of the year.  In addition, the company has expanded its market to Malaysia and extended its marketing authorization in Canada. Last year, Nexstim announced several individual system sales from mid-May to early August. Several of these were deliveries to distributors. This year, the company has shifted from announcing individual deals to larger one-off deliveries.

The decrease in high-margin recurring revenue weighs on earnings

We expect H1 adjusted EBIT to decrease to -0.8 MEUR (H1’25: -0.2 MEUR). The drop in earnings is due to a decrease in revenue and our estimate of a slightly weaker gross margin. Our gross margin estimate is based on the assumption that the share of high-margin recurring revenue will decrease proportionally. We expect operating expenses to remain close to the comparison period's level. The 5 MEUR financing arrangement implemented in May strengthened the company's balance sheet and secured resources for the implementation of its growth strategy. In addition, in the first half of next year, partner Brainlab has the opportunity to make an additional 5 MEUR investment in the company, which we consider likely to materialize. The company's financial position currently looks good.

Outlook for H2 and progress of partnerships in focus

Nexstim's guidance for the current year expects revenue to grow and EBIT to improve. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance, as the 20 system orders received during the summer provide an excellent backbone for H2 and full-year growth. Our full-year 2026 estimate projects revenue growth of 16% to 12.7 MEUR, with EBIT settling at 1.2 MEUR.

In the report, we are particularly interested in comments on the stages of the Brainlab collaboration, as large equipment orders are a concrete signal of the commercial progress of the partnership. In addition, we are looking for an update on the Sinaptica partnership (Alzheimer's disease), including information on a potential development agreement, which is part of our growth estimate for the rest of the year and next year.