Merus Power H2'25 flash comment: High revenue, earnings in line with expectations

Source: Inderes

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/5/2026 at 9:19 am EET.

Merus Power reported its H2 results today. The figures for revenue were stronger than expected, but this, on the other hand, meant lower relative profitability as the earnings lines came quite close to forecasts. New orders were slightly higher than expected, but the order book at the turn of the year was still lower than anticipated, as more revenue was recognized in the previous year. Overall, we consider the report to be quite neutral.

H2 revenue exceeded expectations

H2 revenue was 29.7 MEUR, thus on par with the very strong comparison period. Revenue significantly exceeded our estimate, although forecasting the timing of large electricity storage deliveries is challenging, and this revenue also has relatively low margins. Full-year 2025 revenue grew by as much as 53% year-on-year, driven by a strong H1.

Order intake slightly above forecast

The order backlog at the end of 2025 was 24.5 MEUR (-18% y/y), which was 17% below our estimate as the company recognized more revenue than expected in H2. New orders for the full year amounted to 48 MEUR (5% above our estimate), so overall, orders developed well compared to expectations. However, the order intake for 2025 was, as expected, below the strong 2024 level (53.6 MEUR).

Earnings rows were in line with our expectations, but relative margin level weaker

There was moderate evidence of progress in the profitability turnaround, as the company succeeded in raising the full-year EBITDA to 1.8 MEUR (we estimated 2.0 MEUR). EBIT was also moderately positive at 0.3 MEUR, thus in line with our estimate. The value of the achieved result is slightly diminished by the fact that it required more recognized revenue than anticipated, which simultaneously implies a weaker order book for 2026 and raises the bar for new sales to sustain revenue growth. Net profit was 0.1 MEUR in H2 and -1.1 MEUR for the full year. As expected, the Board of Directors proposes that no dividend be distributed for 2025.

Guidance expects growth and improving EBITDA

The company’s guidance is that revenue will grow in 2026 and EBITDA will be 2-4 MEUR. Based on the order book and guidance, we interpret that growth will slow down in 2026 compared to the very strong growth in 2025. However, the guidance puts upward pressure on our revenue forecasts (latest forecast for 2026: 49 MEUR). 49 MEUR). Regarding EBITDA, our current forecast of 2.5 MEUR for 2026 is within the given guidance.