Lemonsoft Q1'26 preview: We expect a cautious start to the year

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/22/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Lemonsoft will publish its Q1 results on Wednesday, April 29, at 10.00 am EEST. We expect the company's revenue and adjusted EBIT to have decreased slightly from the comparison period, reflecting continued subdued organic growth. We are particularly interested in Lemonsoft's comments on the development of the market situation in the report. In its Q4 report, the company noted that it was seeing early signs of recovery in the industrial manufacturing and wholesale & retail sectors, though the war in Iran has since increased uncertainty about the recovery of the Finnish economy. In our view, Lemonsoft's share valuation has fallen to a very low level due to AI fears. The company is also subject to a mandatory tender offer from its main owner, Rite Ventures, as Rite Ventures increased its ownership in the company above the 50% threshold earlier this year.

We expect organic growth to have remained slightly negative early in the year

We expect Lemonsoft's Q1 revenue to decrease by 1.2% to 7.5 MEUR. We estimate that organic growth (-3%) remained subdued in the early part of the year, as last year’s weak new sales had a delayed impact on revenue. We also expect the customer churn rate seen last year (6.3% vs. 4.4%) to be reflected in the sluggish development in the beginning of the year. In its Q4 report, Lemonsoft commented that the most significant portion of the churn came from certain old products that are outside the current strategy, which focuses on industry and wholesale. However, the acquisition of Jakamo in February supported revenue, contributing approximately 2 pp of non-organic growth to Q1, we estimate. For the full year, we estimate that the acquisition will have an impact of approximately 6 pp.

Profitability supported by efficiency measures, but a decline in gross margin and slow growth are holding back earnings development

We forecast Lemonsoft's adjusted EBIT to have been 1.6 MEUR in Q1 (Q1'25: 1.8 MEUR). This would correspond to an EBIT margin of 21.1% (Q1'25: 23.1%). Profitability will be supported by change negotiations carried out in 2025 and cost savings generated by reducing the workforce. However, relative to the comparison period, we estimate that the gross margin (83% vs. 87%) has declined due to the transition to a new technology platform last year. This continued to weigh on the gross margin in Q4'25 (82.6%), but the company has predicted gradual improvement in the coming quarters. In the earnings figures for the comparison period, Finvoicer's additional purchase price markdown (0.9 MEUR) supported reported EBIT, while Finvoicer's provision for credit losses (-1.1 MEUR) simultaneously led to exceptionally high financial expenses.

We are looking for signs of upturn in organic growth in the outlook

Lemonsoft's guidance for 2026 is revenue growth of 5-13% and an adjusted EBIT margin of 23-29%. We currently estimate 7.0% growth (1% organic) and a margin increase to 26.6%. In our forecast, last year's rather sluggish sales are reflected in Lemonsoft's slow organic growth in H1'26. We expect the situation to improve slightly in H2’26, when we forecast 3.5-4.5% growth. The implemented cost savings and the elimination of technology platform transition costs that burdened last year's earnings support this year's earnings improvement. 2026 marks the first year of the new strategy period for which the company has set a target to achieve an average adjusted EBIT growth of 25% in 2026–2028. We are looking for confirmation in the report that organic growth will pick up towards the end of the year, driven by sales organization restructuring and a potential slight recovery in market conditions.